AA against aggro nit, meh flop

[Redd]

This guy is usually a 16/14/4.75 nitty but v. aggressive player. He usually bets fairly large, but I just sit down at the table and see him make his first 8BB raise in the 200 hands I have on him. I think he might be drunk or something and decide to play back in kind. Is the pf3b sized right?

The reason I ask is because I'm now in kind of an akward stackot ratio on the flop. How should I play this one?

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $184.40
CO: $27.35
Button: $120.30
SB: $45.00
Hero: $50.00

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $4</font>, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $15</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($30.25, 2 players)
Hero has $34.5 left...

[Smilin']

Well, you're never folding, so the only question is how to get him to put money in when he's behind: check to him, bet small to entice a raise, or just push. This could depend on specific reads that you've picked up. Barring those, I kind of like a feeble looking bet to entice a push. About $15 seems right to look weak but not too fishy. Kind of like to don't want to commit yourself to the pot and leave $20 behind so you can fold to a push.

[Redd]

IMHO I don't agree that I could bet-fold here for the last $20. He may be tilting or something (since his $4 raise makes me suspicious), or he may push KK or AQ. I think if I bet half a pot, I'm basically committed. For that matter I'm already committed even if I check.

[Smilin']

[ QUOTE ]
IMHO I don't agree that I could bet-fold here for the last $20. He may be tilting or something (since his $4 raise makes me suspicious), or he may push KK or AQ. I think if I bet half a pot, I'm basically committed. For that matter I'm already committed even if I check.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, sorry, I don't mean bet/fold. I mean bet $15 and call a shove. I'm just saying that a $15 bet looks weak, kind of like you want to save enough money to fold to a shove--so that he shoves with stuff you beat.

The objective here is to get all the money in the middle as often as possible, because I don't think you can ever fold here. (Sounds like you agree on that!)

[Big Poppa Smurf]

bet-folding is really bad here

this is one of those situations where i don't think it really matters what you do, as long as you get your stack into the middle

do you have any idea on his normal calling range here?

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
do you have any idea on his normal calling range here?


[/ QUOTE ]

If he raised 4bb and I repopped to 14, I'd expect maybe 99+, AQs+ish. Let's assume something similar for when he raises 8BB and calls 30, but tbh I'm not really sure.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can ever fold here. (Sounds like you agree on that!)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, we agree there. I'm just wondering the best way to get it in. If I posted this in SSNL, there'd be like 50 people saying to check the flop, turn, river, and ocean so he doesn't put me on aces, but given the weirdness pf and the fact that I just sat down, IMO I look more like a big donk here than the weak-tightie that I am.

[Smilin']

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can ever fold here. (Sounds like you agree on that!)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, we agree there. I'm just wondering the best way to get it in. If I posted this in SSNL, there'd be like 50 people saying to check the flop, turn, river, and ocean so he doesn't put me on aces, but given the weirdness pf and the fact that I just sat down, IMO I look more like a big donk here than the weak-tightie that I am.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. Well, I mostly play 50nl, and I've only ever played a touch of 100nl. I'd guess the small bet to entice a raise from an aggro player might just look fishy at SSNL stakes, but it's worked for me before at 50nl. As a bonus, a weak/passive might call and then feel pot committed to your shove on the turn or river.

[limit refugee]

I'm gonna agree with the doofy small be as the best way to make it go all in...$12, look like a scared AK. Almost certainly he raises you all in, if not push turn.

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
If I posted this in SSNL, there'd be like 50 people saying to check the flop, turn, river, and ocean so he doesn't put me on aces

[/ QUOTE ]

Some recent trends in SSNL disturb me deeply.

If you think he is drunk or on tilt, consider pushing PF given stacks. When he is in such a state and so much deeper than you, you will get very thin calls, even with unpaired hands.

The flop is not very dangerous. I'll bet about 20 on the flop, the rest on the turn. If you dont like variance, pot the flop.