Next football game available to bet on: San Fran at Seattle -9.5

[iggymcfly]

What does everyone think about this game? I really like the Seahawks here. Looking just at the Sagarin predictor, they should be favored by 10, but that doesn't take into account that they're still fighting for a bye while SF's completely eliminated from the playoff race or that Seattle has the best home advantage in the league.

The only thing that makes it shaky is the Darrell Jackson injury. I'd think that the fact that Alexander and Hasselbeck missed so many games would make the current power ratings about accurate with Jackson out, and that the motivational factors + the better homefield would still leave the Seahawks as the play, but I'd be interested in other opinions on this. Does anyone think Jackson is more valuable to the offense than Hasselbeck or Alexander?

I figured that since this is the next game up after MNF, I'd just give it its own thread now.

[Thremp]

Since I've been reading some DS on sports betting. "If you can feel the adrenaline that'll be pumping through the players veins, then its a bet." ... to paraphrase essentially.

[lastchance]

Never bet on the Seahawks.

[Dementia]

[ QUOTE ]
Never bet on the Seahawks.

[/ QUOTE ]
Only if this wise insight was shared with me last week when I took them over the Cardinals. Looking beyond that, I do like Seattle in this ballgame but have not decided if I'll play it yet.

[JJguy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Never bet on the Seahawks.

[/ QUOTE ]
Only if this wise insight was shared with me last week when I took them over the Cardinals. Looking beyond that, I do like Seattle in this ballgame but have not decided if I'll play it yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Frank Gore ran all over Seattle the last time they played. Seattle's defense has looked unimpressive (except peterson) and have difficulty tackling. Asking the Hawks to cover more than a touchdown might be too much.

Their HFA makes me like the Seahawks to win. Maybe I will tease them across the 3, although I hate paying the juice on a 7 point teaser.

[iggymcfly]

For the year, San Francisco ranks 9th in rushing offense and Seattle ranks 16th in rushing defense. That doesn't seem symptomatic of a major matchup problem, but rather just one big game for Gore.

Also, at the time of the earlier matchup the 49ers still had a pretty good shot at winning the division as that win pushed them to 5-5, one back of Seattle. Now, they know their season's over while Seattle's still going strong. And most importantly, Seneca Wallace was the starting QB for Seattle and threw 3 INTs in the 6 point loss.

If anything, the earlier H2H matchup would just make me more confident that the public's keeping the number down. The only thing that worries me is the Darrell Jackson injury. I'm just having a hard time quantifying how inmportant he is compared to Hasselbeck or Alexander.

Also, in general on semi-high profile injuries like this, does the public tend to miss them altogether, or do they tend to overrate their importance, figuring they automatically don't want to bet on the side with the freshly injured player? Really not sure what the effect would be in terms of the square action.

[Dementia]

Another factor that can't be overlooked is what you pointed out in your OP Iggy, which is Seattle is playing this game at home. They lost on the road with Seneca Wallace when the 49ers were in contention, having been dominated by the Packers at home more so than the score would indicate, can we expect the 49ers to rise to the occasion playing on the road against a fired up Seattle team? I think the momentum Seattle ought to have is enough to tip the scale and come away with the win, but I still don't know if I'm comfortable with -9.5.

[JJguy]

I don't think Jackson's injury will hurt them too much. He was injured for most of last year and they did great.

Burleson will start in his place and they still have Branch (113 yards vs 49ers last game). Burleson is doing well on special teams and hopefully it will be a confidence booster for his game as a wide receiver. Seattle also has their 'secret weapon' DJ Hackett.

[tdarko]

iggy,

Why not play the over at 42.5? I love this play, Hasselbeck is playing well (I understand Jackson is out), Alexander is averaging 122 yards a game since he has come back. On the other side their defense is fairly poor, especially their run defense. Frank Gore put up over 200 yards on them earlier in the year and he seems to be running at his best right now and Seattle seems to be letting everyone and their sister through the line--I mean they did let Edgerrin dominate them.

Seattle is allowing 22.3 points per game.
Seattle is avg'ing 21.6 points per game. Misleading with Seneca Wallace as the QB and Seattle playing field position football for most of the year.

[noddyholder]

I'm a sucker for teasers but wouldn't Seattle and the over be a good one here?