AJo suicide squeeze?

Dane S · #1 12-11-2006, 01:37 PM

SB is a 28/14/1.5ish tag, UTG a 26/17/2ish tag, UTG+1 is a 42/15/1.5ish fish.

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $15/$30
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (11SB, 5 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, CO folds, Hero calls, SB raises, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8.5BB, 3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises

Planning to fold to a 3bet and fire any river if called. Any merit to this play?

WillyT · #2 12-11-2006, 01:53 PM

"Any merit to this play?"

I don't think so unless they both have really low wtsd% and even then it's a low chance parlay. One of them has something and maybe the other is just on a draw. You've really got to be hoping that the tag has a little something since most fish aren't good at folding and given the tag's flop c/r he's likely got more than a little something of a made hand or he's got a fd and the fish isn't folding.

Starting from the beginning, I think you can go ahead and 3-bet preflop if you want to play this. You have the BUTTON!

-WT

mute · #3 12-11-2006, 02:43 PM

Very inventive play, but I really doubt it will work often enough to be worth the cost. Most likely they either both have a pair, or one has a pair and the other one a draw. For this to work the fish has to be the one with the draw and the TAG with the pair, I think, and even then you will still get looked up despite the strength you're showing.

Betting the river UI seems like a spew especially if fish is still in the hand. I really can't think of a hand, that the TAG would call the turn with and then fold the river either.

danzasmack · #4 12-11-2006, 02:47 PM

But don't we HAVE to bet the river UI? at this point the pot is so big that I doubt 1 pair folds. I think this play has merit, just not in this spot.

Dane, what did you put the players in the hand on at the turn? Clearly there is a lot more rational to this play than posted and if you're seeing something I'm not I'd be excited.

Dane S · #5 12-11-2006, 02:48 PM

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I really can't think of a hand, that the TAG would call the turn with and then fold the river either.

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What about a pair of 8s or 6s that calls the turn because of odds to improve? Or a pair + flush draw?

Surf · #6 12-11-2006, 02:50 PM

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Betting the river UI seems like a spew especially if fish is still in the hand. I really can't think of a hand, that the TAG would call the turn with and then fold the river either.

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The tag's probably calling any pair to try and hit trips / 2pr on the river, no?

I'm not sure how I feel about this yet. My gut says it's too expensive...we're riksing 2-3 BBs to win 10-12, so it has to work somewhere between 20-25% of the time?

My biggest concerns:
-The fish might have just hit a pair of Ks and is too timid to raise, or might be married to a hand like 99 and not fold. I'm not sure how wide a range he'll flat call on the turn but i think he needs to be folding some pairs occasionally to make this worthwhile.
-SB's flop c-r looks like it was meant to be field-trapping (UTG pfr checked) in which case he'll have a huge hand like a set occasionally, but sometimes a flush draw or even just top pair on the flop. I have no clue whether he'll fold before showdown or not if he has A8s or 99 or some-such.

Surf

Dane S · #7 12-11-2006, 02:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure how I feel about this yet. My gut says it's too expensive...we're riksing 2-3 BBs to win 10-12, so it has to work somewhere between 20-25% of the time?

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Are you including the equity of the 6 outs I'll commonly have? Seems like I'll usually have either 6 outs or 0 outs... though once in awhile someone will have hit a K.

Smarty · #8 12-11-2006, 02:55 PM

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Planning to fold to a 3bet and fire any river if called. Any merit to this play?

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In my opinion, there is none. You are never ahead here and they are never folding (at least one of them will stay in). To be honest, I might just fold on the flop, too many people involved and too few outs.

mute · #9 12-11-2006, 03:05 PM

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I really can't think of a hand, that the TAG would call the turn with and then fold the river either.

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What about a pair of 8s or 6s that calls the turn because of odds to improve? Or a pair + flush draw?

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Yeah, I guess it's possible, but not extremely likely, I think. Maybe if the river is another overcard this will work often enough (HU against TAG that is).

I guess since the bluff only has to work less than 10% of the time, that you should bet here. If the fish is still in the hand, I don't see him ever folding a better hand once he calls the turn, though.

Dane S · #10 12-11-2006, 03:13 PM

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we're riksing 2-3 BBs to win 10-12

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Do we agree that I have odds to at least call the turn? Seems like this is important to establish. If so, then I'm risking 1-2 bets in addition (usually 2 I think), not 2-3, so that would make the odds much better.