TSP's "sandbox theory" for post 10/06 online LHE . . .

[Turning Stone Pro]

Prior to 10/06, the top tier online players were playing in a big sandbox. We were all in there, and we were all splashing around, some sand would naturally get knocked or tossed out of the box while we all enjoyed ourselves, playing away, with no supervision and no worries.

Folks would always stop by and toss more sand in the box, so we could keep playing around to our heart's content, splashing sand around, not really worrying about losing some sand, cause more was always coming in. Lots of fun. Plenty of sand to enjoy.

Now, we are sitting in the sandbox, playing around, but something has become very apparent. There is no longer a constant influx of new sand to play with. As we play, sand gets knocked out of the box as always, but now there is no replenishment and we are unable to play as we once did. The biggest, fattest, smartest kids in the box can still hoard the little sand that is left, but even they are slowing losing it as it continues to get tossed out of the box.

Eventually, the only ones left with sand in the box will be the very few, and, eventually, it will all be lost to the outside forces of the sandbox.

TSP

[Caldarooni]

Clever.

[TheMainEvent]

You could be like the next Tommy Angelo

[danzasmack]

This idea has been discussed a lot as of late, but without your clever metaphor.

Here's my issue though -

Originally you could argue that the distribution of LHE players was skewed right (tail on the right end, meaning a lot of bad players, left players)

In our graph the center will be decent players.

As the supply of new, bad players increases the graph shifts to the center. As we approach the center, the graph should continue to shift right. If you can actually beat this game, then the best players should get the money. Plus if the games aren't as good, players can't move up as fast so the limits should 'dry up' faster.

But then eventually the games will die. The best players playing agains the best players makes no sense! So the good players will leave for NL or for whatever.

then what?

There seem to be only 2 conclusions - either the games are forever dead, or they become good again. Slowly this trend continues and repeats itself.

The current era of online poker is an all time low in the wake of the legislation. So for now this all makes sense.

That being said, I still think the games are good.