Raise or go for Overcall?

fyodor · #1 02-03-2006, 07:44 PM

BB 40/10/1.2
MP 30/15/1.7

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, MP calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, MP calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, MP calls.

River: (7.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero?

Aaron W. · #2 02-03-2006, 07:54 PM

Looks like an easy raise to me. If he has a queen, he's going to call two bets. If he had some sort of draw (flush draw, overcards) and didn't improve, he's going to fold. If he had a weak pair, it's a toss-up. Overall it looks like raising is better.

Dave G. · #3 02-03-2006, 09:16 PM

Pump it up. If MP missed his draw he will probably fold, but BB will probably make a crying/WTF call.

ImsaKidd · #4 02-03-2006, 09:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like an easy raise to me. If he has a queen, he's going to call two bets. If he had some sort of draw (flush draw, overcards) and didn't improve, he's going to fold. If he had a weak pair, it's a toss-up. Overall it looks like raising is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

And if BB hit his set on the flop Op will lose 2 bets. I'm going for the overcall.

WarBus · #5 02-03-2006, 10:06 PM

I'd just call and hope MP comes along.
By just calling you still have a chance for an additional bet from MP without the risk of getting 3 bet by BB. If MP happens to raise, and BB 3 bets you know to get out and if BB just calls you can call and hope MP got aggressive with a weaker Q.

Aaron W. · #6 02-03-2006, 10:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looks like an easy raise to me. If he has a queen, he's going to call two bets. If he had some sort of draw (flush draw, overcards) and didn't improve, he's going to fold. If he had a weak pair, it's a toss-up. Overall it looks like raising is better.

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And if BB hit his set on the flop Op will lose 2 bets. I'm going for the overcall.

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Are you seriously worried about a set?

RunDownHouse · #7 02-03-2006, 11:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
And if BB hit his set on the flop Op will lose 2 bets. I'm going for the overcall.

[/ QUOTE ]
Holy paranoid, Batman. Why are you putting him on a set, exactly?

ImsaKidd · #8 02-04-2006, 02:14 AM

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[ QUOTE ]
And if BB hit his set on the flop Op will lose 2 bets. I'm going for the overcall.

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Holy paranoid, Batman. Why are you putting him on a set, exactly?

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I'm saying its one of the possibilities. BB was getting 5.5:1 on his complete, and I think leading into the PFR isn't that bad if he believes you are full of air.

I have never even played past 1/2, but maybe the 40/10's at 5/10 are totally different. Take my advice with a grain of salt (probably less).

2+2 wannabe · #9 02-04-2006, 02:21 AM

I go for the overcall here - there are so many BB 2 pair hands that he'll 3-bet against you, and MP doesn't look like they're going anywhere

to be honest I don't think this is really close - the MOST you're getting out of BB is 1 more bet by raising, which you'll almost certainly get from MP anyways just calling, with much less risk

Aaron W. · #10 02-04-2006, 02:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I go for the overcall here - there are so many BB 2 pair hands that he'll 3-bet against you, and MP doesn't look like they're going anywhere

to be honest I don't think this is really close - the MOST you're getting out of BB is 1 more bet by raising, which you'll almost certainly get from MP anyways just calling, with much less risk

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think BB has 2 pair on such a goofy flop? And why do you think MP is going to overcall? This is the sort of flop where you often get loose peels to the river chasing overcards, especially since he coldcalled.