How oil scarcity will affect the future from a scientific perspective

[Nepthu]

What does everyone speculate will happen when the production of oil peaks and/or the demand for oil begins to far outstrip the supply? (speculating from a scientific perspective when possible)

Some questions to stimulate discussion:
Will the markets crash? Will we go back to an agrarian type of existence when it runs out? Do you think oil supply will not run out? How will play out? Will the poorer countries get hit the hardest first? Will there be another 'great depression'? Will alternative energy sources be put into place that will 'save us'? When will oil production peak?

[arahant]

My prophesies:

Oil is going to last a VERY long time. Prices will increase over the next 100 years, to the point where alternative energy becomes the rule. In 100 years, the mix will be 30% FF's, 40% nuclear, 20% solar, and 10% other.

The only supply shocks will come from disruptions to major suppliers like Saudi Arabia, and these will become less of a threat the higher the prices become. There is more oil in the CO rockies than in saudi arabia...as soon as the price gets high enough, we'll start to see it being extracted.

No conceivable way is that there will be a substantial energy crisis in the foreseeable future.

[WillMagic]

Answering your questions one at a time:

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Will the markets crash?

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Maybe, but if they do oil won't be the primary factor.

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Will we go back to an agrarian type of existence when it runs out?

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Almost certainly no, but god help us if we do.

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Do you think oil supply will not run out?

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I don't think it will run out....

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How will play out?

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...because as long as there is a market prices will adjust to supply. So rather than running out it will just get more and more expensive, to the point where creating/facilitating an alternative will be immensely profitable. If you ever wondered why there aren't many alternatives to oil right now, the answer is simple; oil is cheap. When it gets more expensive alternatives will be viable. Also, with increasing oil prices comes a demand for increased efficiency, so you'll see more hybrids and smart appliances.

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Will the poorer countries get hit the hardest first?

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Of course they will.

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Will there be another 'great depression'?

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Again, maybe, but oil won't be the major cause.

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Will alternative energy sources be put into place that will 'save us'?

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Yes. There will be just too much money to be made for alternatives not to spring up.

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When will oil production peak?

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Who knows?

[paperjam]

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My prophesies:

Oil is going to last a VERY long time. Prices will increase over the next 100 years, to the point where alternative energy becomes the rule. In 100 years, the mix will be 30% FF's, 40% nuclear, 20% solar, and 10% other.

The only supply shocks will come from disruptions to major suppliers like Saudi Arabia, and these will become less of a threat the higher the prices become. There is more oil in the CO rockies than in saudi arabia...as soon as the price gets high enough, we'll start to see it being extracted.

No conceivable way is that there will be a substantial energy crisis in the foreseeable future.

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In 100 years there will be no oil remaining to be extracted out of the earth. Cars won't be hybrid, they'll be completely electric.

But do you really think the world will make it another 100 years?

[Magic_Man]

Another question I always wonder about - what's going to happen to airplanes? We have electric/hybrid cars already, but airplanes are entirely dependent on fuel. Is someone working on a top-secret all-electric plane? What's the deal?

~MagicMan

[tolbiny]

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Cars won't be hybrid, they'll be completely electric

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In 100 years there will be no oil remaining to be extracted out of the earth.

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Of course there will. Once the alternatives become cheaper there will be less reason to extract oil, and only the countries actually sitting on the oil will be using it (as it will remain very cheap still for them. it will be very hard to invision a scenario in the next 100 years where the last barrels are squeezed out, if they are it will bode very badly for us

[Girchuck]

Prices of which alternative sources of energy currently available do not depend on oil prices?

[RetiredAt22]

More Oil in the CO rockies than saudi arabia???

hahahahah ok, so the major oil companies, who are touted as having the smartest management operations in the world are going to get their oil from half a world away, when the largest field is only 500 miles away from their HQ in texas?

your crazy. the largest oil fields are in the middle east. the only other possibility for bigger fields are unfound fields at the bottom of the ocean.

Oil will be around as long as the oil companies can make a profit. they have the power in government and they can cut down any attempt at switching over to nuclear or solar/wind at any time. we already have the technology to create a world that works the same without any fossil fuels at all. we just dont have the ethics or moral fiber to foreget about "show me the money" and think about the future. that may be the reasonw why this question was posed earlier:

"Do you really think the world will see another 100 years"

my view....the world will... humans will not, mice maybe."

[arahant]

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More Oil in the CO rockies than saudi arabia???

hahahahah ok, so the major oil companies, who are touted as having the smartest management operations in the world are going to get their oil from half a world away, when the largest field is only 500 miles away from their HQ in texas?

your crazy. the largest oil fields are in the middle east. the only other possibility for bigger fields are unfound fields at the bottom of the ocean.

Oil will be around as long as the oil companies can make a profit. they have the power in government and they can cut down any attempt at switching over to nuclear or solar/wind at any time. we already have the technology to create a world that works the same without any fossil fuels at all. we just dont have the ethics or moral fiber to foreget about "show me the money" and think about the future. that may be the reasonw why this question was posed earlier:

"Do you really think the world will see another 100 years"

my view....the world will... humans will not, mice maybe."

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"[W]ith crude oil above $66 a barrel at the close of trading [on Sept. 20], oil shale is a promising alternative to crude. The Green River shale deposits in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming are estimated to contain 1.5 trillion to 1.8 trillion barrels of oil, and while not all of it can be recovered, half that amount is nearly triple the proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia." - Rocky Mountain News

Strictly speaking, oil shale needs to be refined, but the end product is oil.

You can find estimates independently if you know how to use a search engine. The question is, why would you bother to disagree with me so arrogantly, when you could easily have spent the time looking it up and learned something?

[madnak]

Most of the oil is definitely not in the Middle East. I imagine the smart management operations are well aware of vast oil fields right in their own backyard. It's just that they've actually considered the cost of tapping those deposits so they also know it wouldn't be economical.