Regarding the WPT-PCA: VIP Freeroll Final next Sunday

JustASpectator · #1 12-10-2006, 01:08 PM

2,500 starting chips
30 minute rounds
Top three places win PCA seats, the rest win nothing

Assuming the tournament reaches it's cap of 12,000 players (with 8,700+ registered already, this seems like a lock):

12.5 hours into the tournament, the blinds will reach a cap of 50,000/100,000 Ante 5000. With 30,000,000 chips in play, even if the blinds have maxed out, the final table will have ~33BB average stacks. This is HUGE in a satellite. Since the blinds will be capped, at 6 players the average stack will be 50BB, at 5 players it will be 60BB, and at 4 players it will be 75BB.

Assuming those who make the final table have some understanding about how satellite strategy differs from freeze-out strategy, this could make for a (ridiculously) long final table.

Were I a betting person, which I am not, I would put the over/under line on how long the entire tournament takes at 16 hours, assuming the currently listed structure is not modified.

LearnedfromTV · #2 12-10-2006, 01:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
2,500 starting chips
30 minute rounds
Top three places win PCA seats, the rest win nothing

Assuming the tournament reaches it's cap of 12,000 players (with 8,700+ registered already, this seems like a lock):

12.5 hours into the tournament, the blinds will reach a cap of 50,000/100,000 Ante 5000. With 30,000,000 chips in play, even if the blinds have maxed out, the final table will have ~33BB average stacks. This is HUGE in a satellite. Since the blinds will be capped, at 6 players the average stack will be 50BB, at 5 players it will be 60BB, and at 4 players it will be 75BB.

Assuming those who make the final table will have no understanding about how satellite strategy differs from freeze-out strategy, this could make for a (ridiculously) hilarious final table.

Were I a betting person, which I am not, I would put the over/under line on how long the entire tournament takes at 16 hours, assuming the currently listed structure is not modified.

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Evenkeal · #3 12-10-2006, 02:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2,500 starting chips
30 minute rounds
Top three places win PCA seats, the rest win nothing

Assuming the tournament reaches it's cap of 12,000 players (with 8,700+ registered already, this seems like a lock):

12.5 hours into the tournament, the blinds will reach a cap of 50,000/100,000 Ante 5000. With 30,000,000 chips in play, even if the blinds have maxed out, the final table will have ~33BB average stacks. This is HUGE in a satellite. Since the blinds will be capped, at 6 players the average stack will be 50BB, at 5 players it will be 60BB, and at 4 players it will be 75BB.

Assuming those who make the final table will have no understanding about how satellite strategy differs from freeze-out strategy, this could make for a (ridiculously) hilarious final table.

Were I a betting person, which I am not, I would put the over/under line on how long the entire tournament takes at 16 hours, assuming the currently listed structure is not modified.

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BadgerPro · #4 12-10-2006, 02:58 PM

When looking at this structure yesterday my guess was close to 20 hours of play.

shaundeeb · #5 12-10-2006, 04:05 PM

Consider prob 3-4k will be sitting out like the large party poker freerolls.

BadgerPro · #6 12-10-2006, 04:07 PM

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Consider prob 3-4k will be sitting out like the large party poker freerolls.

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Yeah, thing is their chips are still in play, which will extend the end of the tourney.

shaundeeb · #7 12-10-2006, 04:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Consider prob 3-4k will be sitting out like the large party poker freerolls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, thing is their chips are still in play, which will extend the end of the tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

But, it will still be much shorter than a tourney with them playing out. We all have played deep stack tourneys and we all know even with 200bbs people will donk it off. Also, not everyone in the freeroll are even tourney players. I set the over under at 9.5 hours.

BadgerPro · #8 12-10-2006, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Consider prob 3-4k will be sitting out like the large party poker freerolls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, thing is their chips are still in play, which will extend the end of the tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

But, it will still be much shorter than a tourney with them playing out. We all have played deep stack tourneys and we all know even with 200bbs people will donk it off. Also, not everyone in the freeroll are even tourney players. I set the over under at 9.5 hours.

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I'll take the over, the way over.

schwah · #9 12-10-2006, 04:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Consider prob 3-4k will be sitting out like the large party poker freerolls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, thing is their chips are still in play, which will extend the end of the tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

But, it will still be much shorter than a tourney with them playing out. We all have played deep stack tourneys and we all know even with 200bbs people will donk it off. Also, not everyone in the freeroll are even tourney players. I set the over under at 9.5 hours.

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ill take the over for any amount of money and give you 10:1

JustASpectator · #10 12-10-2006, 04:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Consider prob 3-4k will be sitting out like the large party poker freerolls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, thing is their chips are still in play, which will extend the end of the tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

But, it will still be much shorter than a tourney with them playing out. We all have played deep stack tourneys and we all know even with 200bbs people will donk it off. Also, not everyone in the freeroll are even tourney players. I set the over under at 9.5 hours.

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You do realize that after 9.5 hours the blinds will only be 8,000/16,000, with 30,000,000 chips in play.

That being said, I am considering retracting my below statement.

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Were I a betting person, which I am not

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