Can someone check my math on this.... HU vs. HU shootout (4 player)

[lbiars]

I've been trying to decide which is better for me to play- HU matches or 4 player HU shootouts.

By my math, a 60% win rate across the board means you will play 16 total matches in 10 shootouts since you won't be playing any second round matches in 4 out of the 10 shootouts.

At 60% over 16 HU matches, you will win 9.6 games and profit $120 or $7.50 per game.

At 60% over 10 shootouts, you will win 3.6 shooutouts and profit $195 or $12.19 per single match (assuming 16 matches).

When considering an hourly rate, you would have to factor in the fact that in each 2nd round of a shootout both players have double stacks, but I still figure there's a large profit margin difference favoring playing shootouts. Is my math correct here, or am I way off base?

Lee

[XxPenguinxX]

Your math is correct, but the variance involved is a huge amount higher than for one-off games. If your bankroll and temprament can cope, then go for it. There's also, of course, a much bigger time commitment per game. Less reliable, but potentially more profitable - particularly given the rake savings.

[roommate]

both rounds of a 4-man shootout should last on average the same length... double stacks, but also double blinds.

Without a doubt, 4-mans are more profitable read the blog entry titled, "the truth about 4-man heads up matches" at this link:

http://mywholeroll.blogspot.com/2006_08_01_archive.html

~rob

[Goldmund]

One thing you're not giving any thought is that your opponent in the second game of a 4-man HU tournie will on average be a bit better than your random opponent in a HU-sng. The guy at least won his first match, and hell, maybe he's even playing 4m HU's because he read on 2+2 they're better EV.

Also there might be some waiting time involved if you finish earlier than the guys in the second game. I think your most important bottom line is $/hour played and I'm not sure the 4 man HU's provide a clearly better hourly rate.

Basically the four man HU's are the following proposition bet: Do you want to play for double stakes in the next game without paying any rake?

The edge you calculated is not the result of the 4HU's being intrinsically more attractive, it's because you will at regular intervals win a (rakeless) 100$ match instead of a 50$ one, assuming these are the stakes you are referring to. Goldmund

[lbiars]

Interesting analysis on the blog. Luckily, I win 100% of my matches so I make an extra $10/per match playing 4 man.

Is that roommate's work? Sorry, I don't know the folks around here too well.

Lee