Saints vs Cowboys - Reflections?

[Dementia]

Tony Romo, excellent performance so far, getting a lot of big time respect across the board, he's mobile, he's moving the ball well and coming through in clutch situations akin to a veteran of the league.

Julius Jones, enough can't be said about him, he really is an explosive back and a lot can be expected of him to come through in Dallas.

The Wildcard imo is Gramatica, I think it was an error to acquire him, and although he came through last week I still stand by Vanderjagt with all of his turmoils being a more proven % kicker.

Now the Saints, Drew Brees arguably one of the best QB's inside the NFC, can light up a defense, he's slung it really well to Reggie last week who had his first huge breakout game scoring 4 TD's, I think the Saints will show up to fight in Dallas.

I am sort of leaning toward the Saints here, Romo has been too much a success story, 4 W's in a row now for Dallas, I think they lose the streak here and come back strong against ATL last week. Saints ML +260, reflections? Someone who has watched these two defenses closely I'd appreciate your input especially, thanks guys.

[Claunchy]

Romo's a friggin' Jedi. He can do no wrong. That said, he's up against the other best QB in the NFC, so I call this a push.

Julius is solid, but MB3 has been way more consistent, and actually got more carries last week vs. NYG (1 more).

As far as the moneyline goes, I can't really see any way NO comes into Dallas and wins. Both teams have relatively potent offenses, but only Dallas has a respectable defense. NO's defense is very suspect, and the Cowboys' balanced attack will more than likely exploit that.

NO +7 might be a decent pick, but I'm probably staying away from this game unless I hear a super compelling argument one way or the other.

[CarlSpackler]

Don't know why you're giving J. Jones praise when he's been outplayed by Barber III all year, especially lately. Also, I don't think the phrase "due for a loss" should ever be spoken when handicapping a game.

DT Hollis Thomas was just suspended for 4 games, so the Saints interior dline just got softer. Dallas should be able to run effectively inside all night. Bush finally blew up last week, but the Dallas D has the speed and athleticism to contain him (remember Demarcus Ware tracking down Bush in the open field in their preseason game?). Also, the Saints wr core is pretty banged up, and the cowgirls' defense is playing their best ball of the season right now.

At this point, I'm leaning towards Dallas.

[iggymcfly]

I'm leaning toward the Saints here ATS. The Cowboys are kind of the 'hot team du jour' that everyone wants to bet on, and I think they're getting overrated. Intuitively, it seems like a fair line would be somewhere around -4.5. The only thing holding me off is the Sagarin ratings which say that the Cowboys should be favored by 11 at home.

[playersare]

with a point spread of 7, place kicker decisions don't carry much handicapping weight compared to a spread of 3.

seems like a touchdown is a generous amount to give to the saints, since it includes the push on 7 in what will theoretically be the highest scoring game of the week (O/U 48). I would be less excited about the straight moneyline though.

also, since it is a sunday night game, the performance of each team's division rivals earlier in the day may influence player motivation. this is probably why there hasn't been much definitive movement in this line so far this week.

[MacGuyV]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm leaning toward the Saints here ATS. The Cowboys are kind of the 'hot team du jour' that everyone wants to bet on, and I think they're getting overrated. Intuitively, it seems like a fair line would be somewhere around -4.5. The only thing holding me off is the Sagarin ratings which say that the Cowboys should be favored by 11 at home.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds about right. Neither team is especially better at home; I'd take the points.

[tdarko]

Dementia- Barber is making JJ look bad every Sunday. Though he is making him look like the school boy that he really is (why o' why did we not [censored] take Stephen Jackson--Jerry Jones you assclown!!!), Barber still benefits a ton from a dual back role and wouldn't be having near the success as he is if he were getting 25 carries a game, he just isn't that type a back--the Cowboys actually don't have that type a back but what they do have is a great combination.

Claunchy is correct, Romo is a jedi.


Iggy- I don't think Dallas is overrated at all. If anything they are the most balanced team in the NFC (that doesn't say a whole lot, I know I know). The Bears have a suffocating D but a QB that plays 500 with everyone on the field anytime there is the "chance" of pressure coming his way. Realize that Rex GROSSman's QB rating last game was a shade over 1, and that his slightly less miserable 4th quarter than the rest of the game actually raised his rating from 0. The Giants are a mess and a bunch of clowns. The Seahawks are making some noise now that they are healthy. The Saints are extremely explosive but like it has already been said their defense is light years behind Dallas' and Dallas' offense isn't too far behind NO's.

Does this all mean Dallas covers? No, of course not but in no way is Dallas overrated.

[Sluss]

darko, I have warned you before Tony Romo is the ghost of Rex Grossman's Christams past. Beware of young QBs who are getting away with risky plays because they are great. A young QB has peaks and valleys the higher the peak the deeper the valley.



As for this game, when I set this line I thought it should be 4, 4.5. So 7 is a good value. But, with Colston and Horn looking like they won't play and Hollis Thomas out, I'm not as hot on this game as I was. If Brees is unable to take advantage of the Dallas safeties deep, the advantage swings to the Cowboys. The Saints D-line has been real good this year and the Dallas O-line is pretty poor. Without Thomas to stuff the run though the Saints linebackers could be exposed.

I'll still will make a small wager on the Saints and might bump it up a bit if the line really starts to move in their favor.

[NajdorfDefense]

line seems about right, if I were to bet it would be NO +260 because Brees is doing great this year, Bush breaking out and Romo will turn into a pumpkin sooner or later.

[tdarko]

Sluss,

"The Saints D-line has been real good this year and the Dallas O-line is pretty poor."

Yes and no. Dallas' O-line has improved each week and remember that Marc Colombo hasn't allowed a sack yet this year and has dominated every opponent he has played. Their O-line isn't dismal, it was porous on week 1 but they have been clicking more and more each week, it isn't as bad as you think. Still, you are right though, they have some holes but Romo covers a lot of that up with his ability to move.

"darko, I have warned you before Tony Romo is the ghost of Rex Grossman's Christams past. Beware of young QBs who are getting away with risky plays because they are great. A young QB has peaks and valleys the higher the peak the deeper the valley."

There is no doubt that Romo is going to have to drink his medicine and you are right that when he comes crashing down that it will seem like a plane crash b/c of this high he is riding. Still, he is showing ability, emotions, and an overall ceiling that Rex Grossman has never come close to in this league.

I have listened to "The Ranch Reports" for years now and have known how good he actually was, it was almost like he was hidden. The word last year and this year was why we had such a talented back-up reading a playbook on the bench while a washed up, broken down veteran commands a mediocre team. So it isn't like this success is just out of nowhere is what I am trying to say.

"As for this game, when I set this line I thought it should be 4, 4.5. So 7 is a good value."

JoA IM'ed me as to what I thought the line should be for the game this weekend and I was away from my computer at the time, my thoughts were Dallas -4. I completely agree with how you are handicapping the game. Sagarin has the line at -7 but I really like NO and their offense and they can expose Dallas' really only one weakness defensively which is their secondary (as you mentioned), Roy Williams is dreadful and gives up huge plays and NO has 14 plays of 40+ yards on the year (only Philly is better). Other than that Dallas' defense is very tough.