getting aggro with marginal draw against good player

[grafyx]

I thought this hand was somewhat interesting. Villian is Jamougha, whose name I recognize as being a well respected poster but we don't have any history. My name on the site is the same as here, but since I mostly just lurk this forum, he probably doesn't know me (if by chance he does my image is probably tourney donk). We are playing together on 3 tables I think and have 3-bet each other a bit preflop, but thats about it.

The only hand I'm really worried about when he raises me on the flop is 88. I'm sure he would 3-bet me with QQ or KK. I think his range is comprised of 88, flush draws with suited connectors and maybe air.

Is this a good spot to push? I estimate my equity to be about 30-35% when called, so by my calcs I need him to fold here about 35-40% to show a profit.


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $763.75
Hero: $600
CO: $850
Button: $559.70
SB: $523.10
BB: $470.80

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $21</font>, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($51, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $36</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $133</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $579</font>

[luckychewy]

i would just fold to the raise, too likely he has 88/kq/qhxh. with history or reason to believe he was stealing here i'd like it more, or if it was rainbow.

[GLmaestro]

its not that big of an issue but i would prefer cbetting ~45 on this board

[CopTHIS]

On the one hand, this looks OK, but on the other it's not too hot. I think you need to think villian makes this play with air a significant amount of the time for this to be +EV. He needs to win, what 35% of the time? He would, presumably, call with any combo draw and maybe with the nut flush draw (though him hitting an ace may not be enough from his point of view). I think this is probably KQ as much as 88 (88 is more likely to go this way PF and on the flop perhaps, but there are more combinations of KQ), and I would expect you to get called a little too often. I wouldn't expect him to show up with KJ or something many times.

If it was {5 8 K} on the flop and you had {6 7} then I'd go for it any day.

[grafyx]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is probably KQ as much as 88 (88 is more likely to go this way PF and on the flop perhaps, but there are more combinations of KQ)

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats a good point. I figured he was less likely to cold call with KQ vs 88, but this is probably balanced out by the number of combinations.

[wpr101]

I probably fold the flop. If it was a rainbow flop I like your line somewhat more. Given the texture of this board which include KQ and 88 as others have said, I think you get called too much here. I think his range is KQ, 88, air, or 2 hearts.

[philipsaurus]

i &lt;3 this vs jam.

[grafyx]

[ QUOTE ]
i &lt;3 this vs jam.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

[Jamougha]

Uh no brainer?

Bet more on the flop if you're going to do this. Gives you much better odds on the 3-bet.

[DJ Sensei]

draws/combodraws make up most of his range here. of course, you're behind most all other draws except like T9h. the good news is he'll fold the ones that aren't any good, but he's not laying down combo draws here. so, meh.

you should c-bet more on this flop though, given its soggy texture.