Folding bottom set on 200NL (giving people too much credit?)

[verneer]

So I know the standard MO is to never fold a set (given no straights/flushes/double paired overs) in a 6-ring game, but I'll explain my thinking and would like some feedback if I'm too nitty, etc.

The villain is a 25/19/3 winning player and a 2+2 regular. He has $276 and I cover.

I raise in UTG + 1 with 44, villain who is on the button 3-bets it to $24, SB calls, and since we are deep, I call as well.

Flop

4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Action goes check-check-check. This makes me very suspicious - as AK or AQ would probably bet here to see where they stood. As would AA. Top set (KK) would try to let other players catch up (maybe?) The board is drawy ...

Turn

7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

This time the action is check-check and villain bets pot. I call. Should I just shove here and hope against a cooler? I guess ... why call when I think I'm beat?

River

3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

I check, villain shoves the rest. Later he told me he had AJo for a busted straight draw. I guess if he read me as weak and willing to fold it was a great play by him. I would like to hear his analysis on the hand.

So ... given the action ... which is more likely and why?

1) Set of Kings or Queens?

2) Busted gut-shot straight draw?

3) AKs/AQs for the nut flush?

I ended up folding because I went with my read. How off/on was my read given the action?

Bottom line ... is this a clear example of being results oriented and a -EV play?

[mikechops]

Got to bet the flop, AK/AA are getting stacked here. You see that a lot more often than than KK/QQ.

Bet the turn, and after you check and he bets, c/r all-in.

Folding the river is weak. I think he had AA. No way he had AJ.

[tubasteve]

jesus christ. put some money in.

[bilbo-san]

Easiest call ever. Dunno why you did not, since you underrepped your hand so much.

By the way, AK and AA probably check the flop a lot too (to say nothing of TT-JJ or AQ(s)). Lots of WA/WB possibilities.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
Got to bet the flop, AK/AA are getting stacked here. You see that a lot more often than than KK/QQ.

Bet the turn, and after you check and he bets, c/r all-in.

Folding the river is weak. I think he had AA. No way he had AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

[The Velour Fog]

lol, you must be one of those 10/5 type guys i see from time to time. so youre not even setmining huh? topsetmining? ...

actual hand advice: put money in on every street

[ImsaKidd]

[ QUOTE ]
Got to bet the flop, AK/AA are getting stacked here. You see that a lot more often than than KK/QQ.

Bet the turn, and after you check and he bets, c/r all-in.

Folding the river is weak. I think he had AA. No way he had AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dont we want to check and let villain bet, give SB a chance to call, then CR?

[Mr_Donktastic]

[ QUOTE ]
jesus christ. put some money in.

[/ QUOTE ]

[FieryJustice]

Preflop I raised cause thats how I roll
Flop looks terrible so I check with the intention of betting the turn if I am checked to again, as that will make it look like KK or QQ and they will fold most crap besides tp+
River I decide I didnt want to lose the hand so I pushed for a little more than pot because I didnt think he would call with any less than KQ....buuuut he folded 44 somehow. I think I was supposed to get stacked. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[samsonite2100]

*grunch*

Geez, Louise. Bet that f'ing flop. Bet that f'ing turn. Call the f'ing shove. I don't get it.

You think villain's read of you as "weak" is that impressive?

No offense, but if this is NL200, I recommend dropping a few buy-in levels, b/c this is just really, really, really bad.