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#1
12-05-2006, 05:01 PM
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What to expect from doubling up early
It is the WSOP ME first hand. You enter a raised pot with A-10 from the button and the flop comes A-A-10. Nice! (anyone remembers this one) Your oponent push you call and after the very first hand you have doubled up.
Before the first hand everyone had the same chip count and assuming equal skills (even if we know it is not the case) an equal shot at first. At the beginning of hand number 2 you (hero)have a double stack and pretty much everyone else (vilains) an average starting stack. Assuming equal skills and say 1000 entrants. Please provide your opinion on hero chances of winning the whole thing? 
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#4
12-05-2006, 05:11 PM
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Re: What to expect from doubling up early
Your answer implies that you think that having twice as much chips does not affect your chances at winning.
It also implies that if at the WSOP ME first hand you sit in the BB and SB goes all in, you look down and see AA you should fold. The point of this is to find the optimal way of playing.
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#5
12-05-2006, 05:15 PM
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Re: What to expect from doubling up early
[ QUOTE ]
This is covered in the anthology. [/ QUOTE ] It is indeed. I find it still interesting and worth discussing. The old 2+2ers never reached a concessus on this one. I was lucky enough to have a few exchanges with Fossilman on this. According to him no concensus yet but his results give strength to his way of seeing it.
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#6
12-05-2006, 05:31 PM
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Re: What to expect from doubling up early
Ok, so you survived your first all in and you have twice as many chips. But you only have 1/500 chips in play. Does it help you to get the other 998/1000 chips in play, maybe? Is it significant? I don't think so. Look at Farha last year. He doubled up very early and has a significant amount of experience, yet he didn't win and I really doubt that it would really help anyone to win the whole thing. However, I do believe it allows you to last longer than most of the field, though I don't think it gives you a better chance at winning the whole thing.
FWIW, every tournament I've won I've snuck on to the final table w/ an avg chip stack or slightly below avg. Winning a tourney is about getting to the FT and playing well once you get there. Doubling up early doesn't guarantee either of those things.
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#7
12-05-2006, 05:36 PM
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Re: What to expect from doubling up early
of course it has little benefite overall in you winning the thing but that is only because your chances of winning were so small to begin with.
it will be nice to have 20K if you facing another 20K stack. there is just no way you are going to outplay people to accumulate enough chips to pass up 4 to 1 edges. Plus with a pretty heavily donk field alot of your edges are going to come from spots where you have to get it in as a smallish favorite.
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