3/6 value raise decision

[That Fish]

6 handed. Villain (BB) is 60/0/.2 over 150 hands.

Hero gets A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the hijack
UTG limps, Hero raises, folded to BB who calls, UTG calls.

3 to the flop:
8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

chk, chk, hero bets, call, call

3 to the turn for 4.75 BB

8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

villain bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, villain 3bets, UTG folds, hero caps, Villain calls

River:

8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

villain bets...

[MacGuyV]

Looks like a chop but I'd raise/call.

[inferno]

First impression is a flush or lower straight, maiby I would just make a wtf call here but since villian is high vpip I think a raise might be good. Imo its close

[Jiggymike]

Probably worth a raise, only BD flush beats you at this point and he could be overplaying a set.

[pegboy]

I hate to put it this way but I'd raise if you think he is stupid! He put the money in there thinking the pot was his now and that he wants one more bet from you. His lack of aggression tells me he must have the flush. Call. Are these numbers reflective of a player who expects you to fold to his river aggression? I don't think so. Anyone else?

[MacGuyV]

[ QUOTE ]
His lack of aggression tells me he must have the flush. Call.

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His lack of aggression tells you he'd 3bet the turn with a draw? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[jstill]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
His lack of aggression tells me he must have the flush. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

His lack of aggression tells you he'd 3bet the turn with a draw? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I raise, call. his lack of aggression means the only way ur beat is if he had a straight on the turn with the redraw to the flush or the exact 2 pair w/ the flush draw( not many combos only 3 AdJd Jd9d or KdQd). if he does that sucks and u lose 3bets on the river

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
His lack of aggression tells me he must have the flush. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

His lack of aggression tells you he'd 3bet the turn with a draw? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, two posters think that a flush is really that common here? There are only 2 and a half flush combos that would make any sense here (AJ/ J9/ and a half for KQ) and a bunch of other two pair/ set/ lower straight combinations that villain could play this way. Of course, each of these needs to be discounted in some manner or other, but I think the math would support a raise if you weight all of the potential combinations that you beat >= 10%. And I think that this holds true. So, raise/ call sounds right.

[MoDOH]

This has to be one of the easiest raises ever...

raise and if raised just call...

Anything other is kust wrong simple as that...

Villain got a made hand on the turn and since you gpot the nuts on turn you need to raise this river one more time...

[sharpie]

Yea there are 11 combos of J9 alone. The question is whether to cap if he 3 bets, and since he's so passive probably not.