An Interesting Question for Several Reasons

[David Sklansky]

Please don't nitpick about details:

You are playing in a 30-60 game in the Bellagio with a mixture of tourists and pros who are all about 30 years old and in fairly good shape. No obvious bodybuilders or professional athletes. The subject of pushups is brought up by someone who obviously knows no one else at the table. That's a given.

As the converstion continues, one of the other players (not a pro player) says that he will bet $1000 that he can do more consecutive strict pushups than anybody at the table. He goes on to hand the money to a floorman to guarantee he can't back out if someone accepts

Assuming you need to be only 51% sure that you will win, and assuming no other details, how many pushups would you need to be able to do to take the bet? (If you are not that familiar with pushups, anwer in percentile format. Eg "among the top .2% of pushup people, [which, I'd guess would be about 120])

What about if:

He bet $200.

He bet $5000

He was a pro poker player.

The subject was brought up by him.

The subject was brought up by you.

He didn't put up the money and thus might back down.

For each of these questions, assume only the one parameter mentioned is the one that is changed from the original question.

[Sanchez1Fan]

what color is the carpet?

[hmkpoker]

The answers to all of these questions are subjective, abstract numbers, as in "what is the probability that so-and-so is bluffing?"

You will need fewer pushups if he bets $200, more if he bets $5000, more if he's a pro poker player, more if the subject was brought up by him, and less if the subject was brought up by you.

[Dementia]

About 50 to win the bet. The loud-mouth quits at 30, he has more to prove. If I challenge him and go first he beats me, if he goes first I can beat him since we are in fairly equal shape and I believe I could push myself to the limit knowing what I need to beat.

[KMac4]

[ QUOTE ]
About 50 to win the bet. The loud-mouth quits at 30, he has more to prove. If I challenge him and go first he beats me, if he goes first I can beat him since we are in fairly equal shape and I believe I could push myself to the limit knowing what I need to beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm thinking about the same lines here, going second would be a lot better than first.

[Eponymous]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
About 50 to win the bet. The loud-mouth quits at 30, he has more to prove. If I challenge him and go first he beats me, if he goes first I can beat him since we are in fairly equal shape and I believe I could push myself to the limit knowing what I need to beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm thinking about the same lines here, going second would be a lot better than first.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think which order you go in has much to do with it. At a certain point, your muscles just give out, just like doing bench presses. Even 5 more push ups beyond where you would quit if you went first is probably more than can be expected by sheer will, unless you would give up at the first sign of fatigue if you went first.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
About 50 to win the bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
No way. Under the original parameters, I'd be shocked if the guy couldn't do at least 125, almost certainly more.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think which order you go in has much to do with it. At a certain point, your muscles just give out, just like doing bench presses.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you're talking in the range of 50 push-ups, sure, order won't matter much. But once you get into the 100+ range, you're muscles are at fatigue for quite awhile, and willpower will carry you through quite a few.

[Sanchez1Fan]

yeah going second would be a big advantage. if you absolutle zapped but you know you just need 5 more to win it's much easier to reach deep inside and get that extra something.

[Eagles]

I'd say 50 seems about right. Obviously there are numerous unknowns that would affect the decision but 50 seems like a good number.