|
|
#1
12-01-2006, 07:46 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Using past references to determine future?
Let's say I'm not flopped a set for 20 pocket pairs, does the chance that I don't flop a set decrease with each additional pocket pair that I am dealt?
If so, would it be somewhat "crazy" to pay MORE than what you should, or rely more on implied odds using the fact that you haven't flopped a set in so long, since the chances of you not flopping a set AGAIN are lower and lower each time? 
|
|
#2
12-01-2006, 08:22 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Using past references to determine future?
I am thinking of a fair coin... You think probability, a dictionary is your friend, uncertainty being a key word.
From Wikipedia: "The word probability derives from the Latin probare (to prove, or to test). Informally, probable is one of several words applied to uncertain events or knowledge, being more or less interchangeable with likely, risky, hazardous, uncertain, and doubtful, depending on the context.Chance, odds, and bet are other words expressing similar notions. ..."
|
|
#4
12-01-2006, 10:00 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Using past references to determine future?
Don't listen to them. It's like with roulette you just gotta wait for it hit 3 black in a row then bet on red. So if you don't flop a set after 20 pocket pairs move-allin pre-flop with 22 and laugh when you get call by AA and flop ur set that your due for and stack him. It works even better though if you do this at a higher limit since they respect your raises more there.
|
|
#5
12-01-2006, 11:42 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Using past references to determine future?
Yep, and if you miss the money in 20 tournaments in a row, enter a really big tournament because you're due [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
|
|
#6
12-02-2006, 12:53 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Using past references to determine future?
This is how Jamie Gold did it... he spent several years traveling the globe, missing sets, getting dealt bad hands, and generally donking out of things. He saved up all of the 'due' and bought into the main event. They call it the Pure Gold strategy, and it's revolutionizing poker.
Bad humor aside, frsdchts's post is correct. It doesn't matter how many times you miss a set, it's still the same the next time.
|
|
#7
12-02-2006, 05:49 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Using past references to determine future?
Maybe we didn't give you a good answer, here is a better one. You have had AA twenty times and not flopped a set. The twenty first time you are dealt AA you raise until you cap the betting because you flopped a set. You unfortunately lose to an A,2,3,4,6 because one player held a pair of fives.
|
|
#8
12-02-2006, 11:46 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Using past references to determine future?
Was this post moved here from another forum?
[ QUOTE ] Each hand is an independent event. Your odds of flopping a set will not increase or decrease with respect to what has happened to you previously. [/ QUOTE ] This is your answer. Those who think past gambling events will affect future results are operating under the Gambler's Fallacy. It's a sure road to ruin.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
