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#1
12-01-2006, 07:15 PM
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Big Boxing Weekend: Margarito, Cotto, Lacy and Winky,
Ok Showtime and HBO are screwing the boxing fan again by having competiting boxing cards on this saturday night. Showtime is showing Cotto/Quintana and Margaritto/Cottley while HBO is having Lacy/Tsypko and Winky/Quartey.
Here is what I got (in no real particular order): Cotto/Quintana: I like the over 10.5 at -206 on the same note I like Cotto by DEC at +161. Quintana is a quality fighter who was is sporting and undefeated season as well. Quintana is a southpaw and a slick fighter. I Cotto having to work his fight against Quintana. In the end I don't see Cotto rolling through Quintana like Cotto has done to so many opponets. Quintana did well against the "young Tito Trinidad" Joel Julio and Julio was KOing everyone in sight before Quintana. This could be an upset special, I could see it happening, but I would recomment the OVER and Cotto get the edge if it goes the cards because he is Arum's #1 guy right now. Margaritto by TKO,KO or DQ. Seen both guys fight and Clottery is tough guy, but a smaller guy and Margaritto enjoys the spotlight and loves to put on a show when given the chance, seeing that his name is kicked around with about any figher 160 and below Margaritto will want to make a statement. Clottey is smaller and stout which is not really the best body for a boxer espcially in the smaller weights. Margaritto will have his hands full for the first few rounds then his constant aggression and size will be the difference in the second half of the fight. Lacy/Tsypko: I love the OVER in this fight at -167 9.5 rounds. I see Lacy being similar to many well hyped KO specialist who have suffered their first defeat. Most noticably Sam Peters. He had a KO percentage at like 85% up to his loss to Wlad and then in his next fight after his first defeat he went the distance with a fighter the "old" Peters would have put away in 5 rounds tops. I just think that after a defeat like Lacy had he needs rounds to build his confidence up, not another quick KO, which is not even that likley against a guy he had stepped in the ring with previously (a 2 rd ND) and is a tough rugged german fighter. I see Lacy trying to work on his jab more and since it was non-existant in his previous fights this will be more important to Lacy then tearing through another opponet. I actually expect Lacy to come out cautious which is completely unlike Jeff Lacy. Loving the OVER the more I think about it. Winky/Quartey: I think we all know how this one will go; Winky UD. Quartey is old, but also can take a punch. So I see this playing out no different and all the odds indicate that, Nothing really enticing at such high prices. Enjoy the fights Tuds 
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#3
12-02-2006, 12:41 AM
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Re: Big Boxing Weekend: Margarito, Cotto, Lacy and Winky,
I think Cotto at anything less than -400 is a steal. Carlos is being hugely overrated because of what he did to Joel Julio. Julio' s best wins were against some 15-5 guys. After the Quintana fight, he was knocked down while winning a split DEC over Cosme Rivera. So, he's really not what he was made out to be, and Quintana is basically untested. His only other decent win was against Casssiani. I don't like Cotto by decision or the over, though. Cotto had knockouts in 5 of his 6 title fights, and the other one was when he broke Paulie's jaw, orbital, and nose. Also, both Paulie and Branco are pretty slick fighters. Having a good chin isn't enough against Miguel because he breaks fighters down with body punches. And who knows, we've seen Miguel get caught before and be in serious trouble. It could happen again. Cotto to win (-400 or better), under 10.5 (+150 or better).
Like Tuds said, Margarito should break down Clottey. I don't know what I'm betting here yet, but I'm leaning toward the same thing. Clottey by DEC probably isnt horrible at +750. Neither is taking "no" on Clottey KO/TKO/DQ even at -901. That's the only thing I would be ridiculously surprised about. I don't know enough about Lacy to bet or comment on that fight. Wright by UD, -206. I mean, duh.
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#4
12-02-2006, 08:23 PM
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Re: Big Boxing Weekend: Margarito, Cotto, Lacy and Winky,
[ QUOTE ]
I think Cotto at anything less than -400 is a steal. [/ QUOTE ] I think that is absurd, when you consider Cotto's absolute glass jaw. Cotto was out on his feet from a single chopping right hook from Demarcus Corley (who is a lefty). Then Cotto was out on his feet in TWO SEPERATE ROUNDS versus Ricardo Torres. Torres is 30-1 with 27 KOs, and supposedly a big puncher, but his knockouts have all come against South American cab drivers. Torres was subsequently lucky get a SD against Mike Arnaoutis, who is just an another overhyped pretender. Now Cotto is stepping UP in weight. I don't think this will help him. Many people assume his horrible chin was the result of trouble making 140, but I doubt this is true. I think he just has a glass jaw. I do agree with what you say about Cotto breaking fighters down with his power and dedication to body punching. I am just saying that taking him at -400 is not a good idea versus almost any legitimate welterweight. You make some good points about Quintana/Julio. Still, I feel that Cotto himself is overrated. He's had too many life and death struggles with mediocre light welters to be taken too seriously as a great welterweight. I am not touching this fight. If Cotto were anywhere near -400, I would be on Quintana though. As for Lacy, I think he will win and has a pretty good chance of winning by KO. In his first fight with Tsypko (which was stopped after 2 rounds due to a cut caused by a headbutt), Lacy was landing hard lead rights and also landed a good lead left hook. He wasn't having much trouble getting to Tsypko. He rocked Tsypko with one of those lead rights. Lacy likes to go for the knockout. He is admittedly a bit one dimensional, and I agree with Tuds that many skillful fighters will be able to neutralize his power and aggression. I just don't think Tsypko can, and I am basing this on the two rounds they fought previously. Tsypko is supposed to have a good chin, and we are going to found out whether or not this is true, because Lacy will land some good punches throught the fight. He just didn't look prepared for Lacy's hand speed the first time. I agree with you guys on Winky by UD. I probably won't bother to watch that fight, as Winky is always extremely boring. I rather watch Miguel "Gatti" Cotto any day.
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#5
12-02-2006, 08:52 PM
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Re: Big Boxing Weekend: Margarito, Cotto, Lacy and Winky,
[ QUOTE ]
As for Lacy, I think he will win and has a pretty good chance of winning by KO. In his first fight with Tsypko (which was stopped after 2 rounds due to a cut caused by a headbutt), Lacy was landing hard lead rights and also landed a good lead left hook. He wasn't having much trouble getting to Tsypko. He rocked Tsypko with one of those lead rights. Lacy likes to go for the knockout. He is admittedly a bit one dimensional, and I agree with Tuds that many skillful fighters will be able to neutralize his power and aggression. I just don't think Tsypko can, and I am basing this on the two rounds they fought previously. Tsypko is supposed to have a good chin, and we are going to found out whether or not this is true, because Lacy will land some good punches throught the fight. He just didn't look prepared for Lacy's hand speed the first time. [/ QUOTE ] That was the old Jeff Lacy who thought he was invinciable and could knockout any man put in front of him. Of Course I belive THAT Jeff Lacy would KO his guy and almost KO'ed him in their previous bout, but I feel after such a loss that Calzagne gave Lacy that he will be a different fighter this time around. Tuds
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#6
12-02-2006, 09:07 PM
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Re: Big Boxing Weekend: Margarito, Cotto, Lacy and Winky,
You are right. I take back my Cotto at -400 statement. That was an exaggeration. I do still love him at -216 though. He has been out on his feet a few times, but every fight I've seen, he's ended up beating the hell out of his opponent. I think the Corley punch did have something to do with his condition for that fight. He was like 161 entering the ring after weighing in at 140 the day before. Torres did hurt him more than he should have though. Anyhow my bet on the fight was Cotto to win and the under, so I am hedged against the real possibility of Cotto's chin failing. Good comments, btw.
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