NBA Overlays - December

[rjp]

YTD: 38-22-1 (+7.99 units; ROI: 13.32%)

Denver Nuggets +105

Although Minnesota beat Denver a little less than a month ago, recent play suggests Denver is a better team than Minnesota.

As such, coming off a loss I figure the Nuggets are likely to play with more intensity than Minnesota, and that Denver should be favored to win this game.

[rjp]

YTD: 39-22-1 (+9.04 units; ROI: 14.82%)

Sacramento Kings +9 (-110)

The Kings come into this game playing a back-to-back after being blown out in Dallas last night. The Spurs have lost two straight on the road, and they’ll look to right the ship tonight, and they’ll likely be without Manu G.

The Spurs are likely to win this game, but I figure the Kings aren’t getting the credit they deserve in this matchup. As such, the Kings should cover 9 points often enough to be profitable.

[rjp]

YTD: 40-22-1 (+9.95 units; ROI: 16.05%)

Detroit Pistons -171

The Pistons are a much better team than Charlotte, and recent play by these teams shows that. This is a game where you’d normally question Detroit’s focus, but this game against Charlotte is sandwiched between none other than the Knicks and Trail Blazers.

I figure Detroit wins this game often enough to be profitable laying the points or taking the money line, and I figure there to be more value with the money line.

[rjp]

YTD: 40-23-1 (+8.95 units; ROI: 14.21%)

Washington Wizards +3.5 (+100)

Simply looking at how these teams have played recently you’d conclude that Dallas should blow the Wizards out of the water. In reality, however, the Wizards are one of the few teams that plays much differently at home than on the road. Even neutralizing the Wizards scores isn’t enough–they’re just terrible on the road.

A big key for this game is that the Mavericks are coming in flying high. They’ve routinely blown out teams in their home stand by shooting very high field goal percentages, while the Wizards are coming off another road loss to the Bulls. As such, the Wizards figure to be more motivated and play at a higher intensity than the Mavericks.

I still place the Mavericks as a small favorite, but getting 3.5 points at home with the Wizards provides a positive expectation.

[lumpy19]

I have nothing good to add just wanted to say thanks for the posts and analysis. Been following you since the beginning of the season, keep it up [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[rjp]

lumpy19, thanks. Running a little better than can be expected (ROI wise), though.

Going to grab this one now, as I figure the price isn't likely to get any better overnight.

Portland Trail Blazers +11.5 (-110)

Detroit will be focused for this game, so I give Portland little chance of winning. Getting +11.5 points at -110, however, I figure to have a positive expectation even if Portland rarely ever wins.

[rjp]

YTD: 41-23-1 (+9.95 units; ROI: 15.55%)

Along with the overnight buy of Portland Trail Blazers +11.5 (-110):

Dallas Mavericks -133

The Mavericks were out hustled last night by a more focused and motivated Wizards team even though they managed to make the final score respectable. The Mavericks are likely to play with more intensity than New Jersey tonight, and although they’re playing a back-to-back they should still be a good size favorite to win this game. As such, I feel there is value with laying the points and taking the money line. At -133 I find more value with the money line over the point spread.

Sacramento Kings +10.5 (-112)

The Kings are also playing a back-to-back tonight, in which they lost last night to Orlando, and Artest is again questionable for the Kings. All of these factors considered, the Suns shouldn’t be laying this large of a number. Although the Kings aren’t likely to win this game very often, they’re more likely to cover 10.5 points often enough to be profitable at this price.

[rjp]

YTD: 43-24-1 (+10.61 units; ROI: 15.84%)

Boston Celtics -3 (-101)

The Celtics should actually be motivated to win this game, and even without Wally I figure they win often enough to be profitable laying the points.

Washington Wizards +102

The Wizards were torched by New York last time out, and it’s likely they’ll be more motivated to win this game. New York is coming off their only other home win, so I figure the Wizards to play with more intensity creating a better opportunity of winning.

Atlanta Hawks +10.5 (-101)

Atlanta will rarely win this game, but they’re likely to cover the point spread more often than not.

[rjp]

Charlotte Bobcats +7.5 (+100)

Everything looks ripe for the Spurs to win this game, as they’re not likely to lose to Charlotte twice in a row, nor is Charlotte likely to win two straight games. Even still, I figure to have a positive expectation with Charlotte at these odds.

[alecb]

I enjoy your picks but I have one suggestion: be careful when you have back to back games and the second game is against a high scoring offense. I'd typically take the Kings in a stand alone, 2 day rest situation, but they got destroyed by the Spurs the night before, and playing a team that typically averages over 110 points at home is usually a bad sign, even with such a big spread.