AA One Pair @ River. Obvious Fold?

[FireStorm]

Granted some may differ on flop/turn play here, but I'm interested in the river as played.

Live 1-2 NL game @ poker club, loose poorly played game. I have maybe 310 in front of me.

Preflop action is a bit fuzzy, but I have AsAx on the button or in the cutoff. 5 players limp to me, I make it $23 (I imagine about half of you are wondering about the raise to 11.5xBB preflop. In live 1-2 NL @ poker clubs like this, this is what it takes to thin fields with this many limpers, "standard" raises are never respected.)

Club owner, who is a maniac and almost always has suited trash, calls out of the blinds. Villian calls, one other player calls. 4 way to the flop, pot about $95. Villian is a woman who is a poor player, tight but calling station-esque preflop, and unfitting with the aforementioned, fires out big when she hits the flop.

Flop 9s-6s-4x. It goes check-Villian fires out $40-fold to me. I call, club owner folds. (Why just call here? Good question. I imagine everyone thinks raise is standard here, but A) if I shove, the only hand that calls is beating me B) I want to play a small pot here, as I have zero read and players of her caliuber usually don't fire out into preflop raisers). Heads up to turn, pot = 170.

Turn 3s. I have a spade redraw. Womans hands shake uncontrollably, it takes her a minute and a half to gather up another $40 bet. I call. (Anyone like a raise here? Is this nuts?) Pot = $250.

River is a red Jack. Woman goes instantaneously AI for $160.

Regardless of earlier streets, is this possibly in any way, shape or form a call I can make on the river? I folded pretty quickly and afterwards was told repeatedly that I was nuts for laying down the "sure" winner. As a matter of fatc I was so vehemently told that my fold was bad that I offered my remaining stack to anyone who could name 5 hands in the deck that I could beat, but, this is a story for another time.

Thoughts? -EV to call on river or not? It's $160 into $410, which is about 2.6-1. Is a one pair hand good here +/-30% of the time? What do you put her on? And can you win the "name the 5 hands I can beat in her range" challenge?

[FireStorm]

Show some love guys. I don't think I'm nuts but I really cannot imagine how anyone advocated a call here.

[snakekilla88]

-ev call on river?

I dont know didnt read whole post, but you should have raised the flop!!

[Gonso]

Your raise was pretty standard for the situation, 150-200% of the pot, but I'd make it even larger here. If it's as bad as you say, you're much more likely to get action; there are 7 other players with money in the pot already, someone's bound to call. Your read on the table should make this a drastic overbet of the pot, raise to $35 or more.

My first read is that this is a kiddie table, and I wouldn't be amazed to see anything.

My strong feeling is that you're up against QQ or JJ. KK is also possible, but 'most' players would reraise preflop. Of course, she's beating you with a tons of hands like AsKs.

I think we can rule out a straight, at least.

Me, I think I'd pay this one off, and be prepared to buy back in. She has strength written all over her, but she also appears too much a novice to lay down QQ to such a large bet preflop, or even know to reraise with KK.

A good case can be made for folding, but I don't think it's an obvious fold. I mean, you were there - you must have been reasonably sure you were beat. The math goes out the window if you're sitting there and you're convinced that you're second best. If she convinced me, I'd let go. Otherwise though, I'm calling.

Showing down those aces you folded was serious -EV though. Keep that kinda thing to yourself.

[FireStorm]

She can't have AsJs or anything similar (nut spades), I hold the As in my hand. I turned the nut redraw.

Based on previous experience I'm almost 100% positive that she raises big pairs preflop. I don't think this is ever KK or QQ, and JJ is beating me.

I know everyone at the club and they know my style of play pretty well, so given the action it's fairly obvious I have a big hand. Perhaps indicating what I held was a mistake, but then again in a game where 11.5xBB gets 3 callers preflop, who knows if anyone's even paying attention?

[Shortcorner]

I'm folding here, it's not even that tough given your read on the player. I would have raised the flop

[Gonso]

I don't know, you're really in a mess. With a huge preflop raise though, how will she handle queens? That's my sense, same with JJ.

Re-raising the flop will light your way a little bit. That's manadatory here. It's a great flop for you, considering the action preflop. You don't want to see another spade roll off, and you probably don't want to see any paint either.

The pot is large, reraise her flop bet, and then you'll have a clearer picture if she jams.

Just calling down , you might even be up against KQs or something.

[Bill Smith]

Pot is ~$170 when you call flop and she has $200 behind. She didn't exactly fire out big at this flop, so I don't think it's a set. Unless the club owner is deep, this is an all-in at this level.

This is close enough on the river that I'd go with your read: shaking hands = monster.

[foureightsuited]

[ QUOTE ]

Flop 9s-6s-4x. It goes check-Villian fires out $40-fold to me. I call, club owner folds. (Why just call here? Good question. I imagine everyone thinks raise is standard here, but A) if I shove, the only hand that calls is beating me B) I want to play a small pot here, as I have zero read and players of her caliuber usually don't fire out into preflop raisers).

[/ QUOTE ]

A. When your shove is called you probably are not looking good, but when its not (frequently) you will be $135 richer.

B. You blew your chance at a small pot after making a big raise PF and getting called in 3 spots. Your stack size isnt very big considering the size of the pot on the flop, such that your push is a reasonable sized raise, so go for it




as played fold river and dont ever show it, ever