200NL-FR | Set, am I really this much of a nit?

[los_toros]

I'm multitabling and using stats, villain is 15/8/3 or so with equal agg on all streets.

NOTE: Villain took more time than usual on all streets and timed down on the river before shoving it in my face.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $93.40
UTG+1: $206.80
MP1: $149
MP2: $117
CO: $200
Button: $70.15
SB: $199
Hero: $209.80

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
3 folds, MP2 calls, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $9</font>, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($37, 4 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($37, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $24</font>, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button folds.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($85, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $55.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises all-in $167</font>, Hero cries...

[Womble]

You are getting 2.5:1. His range is probably AA/JJ/AT/AJ or 2 diamonds (unlikely)

Honestly dont know what to do - looks like a fold but dont know if i could do it

[kitaristi0]

I call because lol at folding sets but I think calling is meh at best.

[bottomset]

tags really don't check AA on the flop do they? or call the turn with JJ or KQ(nondiamonds)?

I'm not sure what he plays this way, I suck at folding so I prob would call

[ronaldann]

I think you bet too little on the turn. I'd make it at least 40 with the draw out there. That way you can be quite sure he isn't calling w 2 diamonds, making the river a bit easier I think.

This is either a flush or a bluff. I'm leaning towards flush.

[jmxthievez]

If you are going to fold to a push/don't want to do if raised check call that river. Hurrah for value betting, but what hand that checks the flop and calls the turn are we looking at here except for AA and diamonds.

I think KQd is a possibility (lol)
You screwed this hand up on the turn, with the pot being 36 you should bet at least 30. As for river, that's not the time to wake up and bet heavy, I'd c/c that.

As played, I really don't know what you are beating on the river. Though heat of the moment, wow I have a set, I'd think call, but thinking about it here, theres really nothing you beat from a 15/8. Fold. But I really think folding and calling is close. Expect to see AA 40% of the time, a flush 30% of the time, and JJ 30%, and air 10%.

[Dan Bitel]

jmxthievez,

c/c the river is an absolute crime

[jmxthievez]

Bet/fold? I think this river decision is close, but every time I read it I cringe thinking how we are good here against a 15/8. So as played dbitel, bet 55 and fold?

[Suigin406]

u can't check the river...dunno if i can fold this, but i think it would be best here...it's not A10, could be AJ, could very well be KQ...i guess fold, but i don't like folding sets...

[Dan Bitel]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet/fold? I think this river decision is close, but every time I read it I cringe thinking how we are good here against a 15/8. So as played dbitel, bet 55 and fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

bet/fold &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; check/fold&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; check/call IMO

The thing is, he will check behind nearly all hands we beat on the river.

I have no problem with folding to his raise here, he's vb a worse hand just about never