$16: Facing all in bet with a King high flush draw??

[Axiom]

Villain is a regular player at these levels. He's not a donk, but he's not that strong either. Can calling without a made hand be right here?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1400)
UTG+1 (t2210)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)
CO (t1500)
Button (t1490)
SB (t900)
Hero (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="red">UTG raises to t40</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, Button calls t40, SB calls t30, Hero calls t20

Flop: (t160) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
<font color="red">SB bets t860 (All-in)</font> Hero???

[Green Kool Aid]

very easy fold.

[reed62783]

[ QUOTE ]
very easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

not as easy as u think... OP has tons of outs if villian has a T and not the Ace of Diamonds

[Axiom]

I've got 13 outs, twice, giving me &gt;50% chance of winning by the river. I'm thinking the outs I lose (Villain holding Axd, or a king/queen with a better kicker)are more than made up for by the implied odds from the guy behind me calling some of the time?

[mmorpg]

A bit early in the tournament to take this risk.

[futuredoc85]

well its def early and your plan is kinda [censored] if one of them calls w/ AdXd no?

[kevstreet]

This looks like a fold to me. It's early, Villain could have the nut draw or a small set (which takes away some of your outs)... I fold.

[wiggs73]

"op has a ton of outs if villain has a ten and not the ace of diamonds"

"i've got 13 outs twice"


exactly. my take on the situation is you have KQd and SB has JTh and UTG doesn't have QQ-AA and will fold and button didn't make a hand either and will also fold and you now have the opportunity to put in over half your stack as a very slight favorite. this opportunity is too good to pass up, you cannot fold here.

[futuredoc85]

[ QUOTE ]
"op has a ton of outs if villain has a ten and not the ace of diamonds"

"i've got 13 outs twice"


exactly. my take on the situation is you have KQd and SB has JTh and UTG doesn't have QQ-AA and will fold and button didn't make a hand either and will also fold and you now have the opportunity to put in over half your stack as a very slight favorite. this opportunity is too good to pass up, you cannot fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] wiggs

[wiggs73]

actually i was prob. kind of an ass there for no real reason except for that i'm at work, which pisses me off in general.

but anyway, i can't really justify calling this. you're basically hoping for a best case scenario that would be high variance / only slightly +EV. and i've found out the hard way that the best case scenario is often not the scenario that plays out.

if anyone has 2 pair or a set, you lose 6 outs.
if anyone has an ace-high flush draw, you lose 9 outs.

just isn't a good situation imo.



axiom,

a good way to analyze this hand (or at least a good exercise) would be to download pokerstove and put SB on a range of hands and see how much equity you have vs. that range... and then check out the link in the FAQ about how to do ICM by hand and just work it out for this.

it still won't be complete b/c it won't account for the times UTG has a big pair or the times button flopped a set. but it'll at least serve as a good first step for putting some numbers w/ the problem.

seems like a really easy fold to me tho.