($12turbo) Q9o -- Another Bubble Push

[Bort99]

Read: BB thinks I'm an idiot for pushing Q10s from the SB earlier. On the other hand, he's pretty tight. Fold this with shorty down to 2bb? Or push for the same reason?


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t200/t400
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t830
Button: t9050
Hero: t1730
BB: t1890

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in t1730</font>

[Pocketbear]

It's -EV (-0.1%) if BB calls with 40%. It's 22+,A2+,K2+,Q9o+,Q5s+,JTo,J8s+,T9s. But he would probably call tighter because of the very same reason you're hesitating - UTG having only 2 BB. So this is a shove acording to numbers, but it would be very hard to do for me, because I'm such a noob [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[reed62783]

You should be shoving here b/c BB also nows that UTG only has 2BB and that should tighten him up tremendously

[alanbrown]

There's no way he's calling with top 40% If he assumes that Q9o is the bottom of your range then he should just about call you with ATo but should be folding KQs and 66. So you have a safe push against a smart player. However, remember that if he does make a bad call against you, you both suffer, so you should only push this against a good player.

[reed62783]

I owuld put his calling range on AQ+ 99+

[Bort99]

You're right -- his range was tighter, and he called with AKo. Unfortunately I didn't suck out so he still thought I was a moron. Thanks for the assurance that it was a good play.

[reed62783]

Np then

[Finnisher]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no way he's calling with top 40% If he assumes that Q9o is the bottom of your range then he should just about call you with ATo but should be folding KQs and 66. So you have a safe push against a smart player. However, remember that if he does make a bad call against you, you both suffer, so you should only push this against a good player.

[/ QUOTE ]
This sort of logical thinking when trying to put $12 players on ranges is useless. If they see you push 43o once, they think that's what you're pushing next time too. They somehow forget that you might have a good hand too. They don't think about ranges, they think about something else and I don't know what that is.

AJ+,88+,KQ are hands that are always good enough to call with for a donk. If they feel frisky you can add A6+,66+,KT+ to that range. To them it doesn't matter what your own range is or should be. They have their cards and play accordingly, they don't put people on ranges but they do remember you pushing junk. Then they widen their range to A2+,22+,KT+,QT+,JT or maybe even more because you pushed 43o once and you're doing it again just to bully them. Some donks don't care about the bubble either or maybe even think that a heroic call with Q2o on the bubble is the highlight of the week for them.

Still, Hero should push at least 50% here, possibly much more.

[futuredoc85]

i wish i still had the hand history but in a similar spot w/ a shorty on the bubble in a $27 i shoved 93o into an equal stack that had been really tight all game and he called but i was busy at another table. When that one popped up again he was gone and the chat said- "i knew u had nothing donkey." I opened up the HH and he called w/ 86s. I still push this tho esp w/ your read just always remember the idiot factor when considering future actions for most of your opponents.

[RexWoo]

Finnisher, I think you got it 100% right (I got called yesterday in 6 games only by 87o, K8o, Q7s and T9o when pushing from SB, in the 7-9 BB zone).

OP : good push anyway, as other said.