2/4 live hand, is folding the underfull too nitty?

[Off Duty]

2/4 LHE at a indian casino on Friday morning. The weekly donkament started about a half hour before and I was killing time till a NL game got started.

Table is loose/passive/predictable, nine handed, standard 2/4 horrible.

Action:

Three limpers and one fold to me who limps with 6d7d. Everybody else limps, the sb completes and the bb checks. [8sb]

Flop 6h6sQd

Action is checked to me, I bet and everyone calls. [16sb]

Turn Qs

Action is checked to me who bets again. Two folds, button two bets everyone folds to me. Button has not shown any agression to this point in any pot he's contested and he's played in almost all of them with as little as a gutshot or third pair. I turn my six over and fold. Villian starts to steam and rakes the pot.

In my mind I was either playing for a chop (maybe 30%) or was outdrawn (maybe 70%). Q6 was totally in villians hand range (most of the table was playing 70%+ hands).

Comments?

[jjshabado]

[ QUOTE ]
2/4 LHE at a indian casino on Friday morning. The weekly donkament started about a half hour before and I was killing time till a NL game got started.

Table is loose/passive/predictable, nine handed, standard 2/4 horrible.

Action:

Three limpers and one fold to me who limps with 6d7d. Everybody else limps, the sb completes and the bb checks. [8sb]

Flop 6h6sQd

Action is checked to me, I bet and everyone calls. [16sb]

Turn Qs

Action is checked to me who bets again. Two folds, button two bets everyone folds to me. Button has not shown any agression to this point in any pot he's contested and he's played in almost all of them with as little as a gutshot or third pair. I turn my six over and fold. Villian starts to steam and rakes the pot.

In my mind I was either playing for a chop (maybe 30%) or was outdrawn (maybe 70%). Q6 was totally in villians hand range (most of the table was playing 70%+ hands).

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

When it comes back to you on the turn you're getting 10:1 and most likely (also the worst case) getting to show down will be 11:2. If you think there is a 30% chance of a chop then you'll make 6.5BB 30% of the time and lose 2BB 70% of the time. Meaning you should call down because you expect to win 0.55BB.

I think this is a pretty close decision. I would have called down unless I had a solid read that villian would only bet a Q there. I also find that while calling down might cost me a bet, it keeps me from going on tilt. But thats just me.

Edit: I [censored] the math up. But I'm too tired to fix it. Either way if you think its 30% of a chop you're in a very marginal decision. It won't matter much what you do, and I tend to go with calling.

[Off Duty]

He called in a flash on the flop. I figured him and one other guy for a queen at that point.

I have been working on steam control for the past six months. Knowing myself, had I called him down to only find out I was right on the turn would of fo-sho caused me to tilt. Tilt>.55bb, at least in my world.

[Hoss1193]

[ QUOTE ]
I have been working on steam control for the past six months. Knowing myself, had I called him down to only find out I was right on the turn would of fo-sho caused me to tilt. Tilt>.55bb, at least in my world.

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds like a completely separate problem from the question posed in this thread - one perhaps appropriate for the Psych forum.

If you clear-headedly estimate the 70/30 proposition and call down knowing that's only a slightly +EV play in the long run, then you're expecting him to probably turn over a Q at showdown. Then when he does so, that doesn't change your assessment of the situation or your proper action. So if your likely response is to go on tilt - that's another problem.

Perhaps more subtly...if you're playing in such a way as to "avoid going on tilt" in lieu of playing according to your most accurate assessment of +/- EV, then guess what? You're already on tilt.

[Off Duty]

No. What causes me to go on tilt is to call down a person I'm reasonablly confident has me stone dead and not having the disipline to follow my instincts that I'm drawing to a one outer. The opponent doesn't me cause me to go on sizz. Burning up bets when I'm whipped does.

[jjshabado]

Ok, the right math would be:

30% of the time you pay 2 bets to win 6.5BB (10 in pot + 1 from villain on river + 2 from you / 2) for a net win of 4.5BB.

70% of the time you burn 2BB. So that means when you call you expect to lose 0.05BB.

So, yeah it doesn't matter what you do. I would say that in this situation 30% chance of a chop is probably a little high based on my standard impression of a live passive player, but you were there so you're impression will very likely be more accurate.

There may be metagame arguments to be made for calling too in that it makes it less likely for your opponents to bluff at you in the future. But at 2/4 live your opponents can barely understand their hand, so the image upside of calling probably doesn't exist.

[jjshabado]

[ QUOTE ]
No. What causes me to go on tilt is to call down a person I'm reasonablly confident has me stone dead and not having the disipline to follow my instincts that I'm drawing to a one outer. The opponent doesn't me cause me to go on sizz. Burning up bets when I'm whipped does.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, if you think there's a 30% chance of chop then go with what that tells you. If you think there's a 5% chance of a chop then yeah you should fold. There are often decisions you have to make where you feel like you're just throwing away an extra bet, but in reality you're losing a bet 9 times out of 10, and winning 15 or something bets 1 time in 10. It doesn't mean your undisciplined 9 times, it just means you realize that poker is a game of imperfect information and you have to make plays like this to get ahead.

[Off Duty]

[ QUOTE ]
There may be metagame arguments to be made for calling too in that it makes it less likely for your opponents to bluff at you in the future. But at 2/4 live your opponents can barely understand their hand, so the image upside of calling probably doesn't exist.

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean like when I made aces full of queens and the guy to my right helped me cap it up all three streets with J9 six hands later?

[Jiggymike]

Most passive live players have no idea that they should call here and get weak draws to call down because lots of players will call down A high here or a lower pp because that's how live play goes. The best part of this hand is that you turned over the 6 and annoyed him - now he will either be tilting a little that he didn't win a big hand (after his suckout Q) or he will play better against you because he doesn't like you. I don't think you did anything wrong by folding OR by showing.