NFL Week 12

[rjp]

YTD: 64-55-3 (+1.71 units; ROI: 1.44%)

Miami Dolphins -147

Basically Miami is playing better than Detroit right now to expect them to win often enough to be profitable at this price. Miami came into this week with some questionable injuries, but it turns out they should be relatively OK. Detroit, however, will likely be without RB Jones. This will make Martz happy, but it doesn’t bode well for the Lions. Miami has a strong defense that should be able to shut down a one dimensional attack.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +11.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Dallas Cowboys UNDER 39.5 (-110)

This will be a tough game emotionally for Dallas. They’re coming off a big win at home against Indy, and they face a division foe, the Giants, next week. Although Tampa Bay will likely lose ,they aren’t this bad. Even with injuries these teams have strong defenses that will likely keep this game UNDER 39.5.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 (-113)
Denver Broncos / Kansas City Chiefs OVER 37.5 (-110)

The Chiefs will get Waters back this week, which should help fuel their offensive attack. Sampson is still out, but Green & Co. will have a much easier time moving the ball, and the Chiefs should be a larger favorite than what’s currently posted. Denver’s defense took a hit last week against San Diego, and overall they haven’t been shutting opponents down like they were earlier in the season. Don’t let the previous 9-6 score fool you–this game is likely to have many more points than that scored.

[PropPlayer]

Can you explain why you took -147 ML instead of -3 +104
Just curious.

[KD2552]

rjp,
Im curious about your thoughts on the NYG/Titans game. My initals thought were to go with the Titans +3 at home. But the Giants have to start winning some games here, and Eli isnt as bad as he's been playing. With all that being said, right now I think its a "no play" curious what you think.

[rjp]

PropPlayer, the expected ROI is slightly higher. Obviously the expected winning percentage is higher, too, but over the long term I expect to return a higher percentage of money I risk on the money line than the 3.

KD2552, the Titans are playing a bit above their heads right now I think, but 3 is probably a good number. Keep this in mind: I've been pretty busy and haven't really looked into the game yet. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Jibba]

Took Detroit personally. I think it's finally let down time for Miami. Detroit has been playing better and will be pumped at home. Also going against you with the Cowboys but with you on the KC/Den game with both plays.

[ksufan19]

love the card, i'm on bucs and chiefs sides also.

GL

[RichGangi]

took MIA(-3) for even $ @ 1.5 units

[PropPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
PropPlayer, the expected ROI is slightly higher. Obviously the expected winning percentage is higher, too, but over the long term I expect to return a higher percentage of money I risk on the money line than the 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it is not to much trouble can you show some math. I am just trying to learn I go buy what I think makes sense sometime but don't have the math to back it up.

I took -3 +104 using this logic.

Typically -3 games have -104 to -110 in juice and have a ML of -150.
The difference is 40-46c
In this case it was +104 and -147 costing 51 cents more to take the ML.

Second question:
If the expected ROI is slightly higher would it always makes sense to take the ML instead of -3 if the ML is within 51 cents?

[Nick B.]

I got lucky and got Mia -3 +119.

[rjp]

At -3 I expected to win ~55% of the time, lose ~31% of the time, and push ~13% of the time. At a price of +104 I expect to make a return of ~25.9%.

At the money line price of -147 I expected Miami to win ~75% of the time, so I expect to make a return of ~26%.

We're only talking about a ~0.10% in difference, but expecting to win ~55% of the time to ~75% of the time with a slightly better expectation is the best bet in my book. Both figured to be profitable, of course.