Deep. Monstrous. I Know What He Has. Should I Tell Him What I Have?

[epdaws]

FT NL 200, 6-max, 6-handed

Hero has $410 and Villain covers.

Reads: In 500 hands Villain is 19/7/3 and I've never seen him re-raise preflop. He's not a squeezer, and this is not exactly the optimum spot to squeeze. That narrows his range quite a bit, no?

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

UTG folds, Hero raises to $7, folds to Villain in SB, Villain raises to $12, Hero calls.

Flop: ($25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain leads for $22. Hero? Check the poll and give me your reasons for your line.

[Kilillan]

I would just repot and call a push

[***]

I think you should pop it pot sized. You know he often has a strong hand and will pay your off, and you'd rather not let AK off the hook to pair above you. You are really hoping he's in a hurry to go broke with AA to punish your "obvious draw". On the turn AA is a favourite if you haven't improved, so get it it in while the getting is good.

[epdaws]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should pop it pot sized. You know he often has a strong hand and will pay your off, and you'd rather not let AK off the hook to pair above you. You are really hoping he's in a hurry to go broke with AA to punish your "obvious draw". On the turn AA is a favourite if you haven't improved, so get it it in while the getting is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's your plan if Villain calls the re-pot, Turn is 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and Villain bets $200?

[Ginge]

I voted for all in but changed my mind to pot sized raise. then check behind on turn and fold river UI if necessary I reckon

[Paul Thomson]

I like a call.

I feel stacks can get awkard if we raise to 100 and villain calls and checks turn.

[Ginge]

then its a math problem as there is no fold equity

[ValarMorghulis]

Looks like villain has AA (maybe KK). So I think raising/pushing etc is +EV. But only barely because you probably have no FE. Someone who raises small preflop to suck people in aren't going to fold postflop when they get action.

So I think calling is best. Hit one of your outs and try to stack him. Even if you don't hit on turn you probably have implied odds to call a pot-sized bet (Hopefully he won't bet quite that much) due to nitty villain's (possible) unwillingness to fold AA even on a scary board.

[***]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you should pop it pot sized. You know he often has a strong hand and will pay your off, and you'd rather not let AK off the hook to pair above you. You are really hoping he's in a hurry to go broke with AA to punish your "obvious draw". On the turn AA is a favourite if you haven't improved, so get it it in while the getting is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's your plan if Villain calls the re-pot, Turn is 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and Villain bets $200?

[/ QUOTE ]
Call. You'd have no fold equity with a push, but I have a hard time giving a player like this credit for 999. It's like 55/45 for AA on a brick turn so you definitely have odds to call a pot sized bet, especially since some of your outs are disguised.

I'd call his range AA, KK, 99, with 99 discounted by 50% based on the preflop action. That's 14.5 combos, only 1.5 of which are beating you. I'm at work so I can't pokerstove against this range, but I know in my heart that calling is profitable against it.

[Bukem_]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2196357
pokenum -h as ah - 8s 7s -- 9s 8h 6s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 6s 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ah 368 37.17 604 61.01 18 1.82 0.381
8s 7s 604 61.01 368 37.17 18 1.82 0.619