am I losing too much by not bet/folding?

[kickflip252]

Recently I was looking at my game and I've been having some problems folding on the river. Part of the problem comes from SSHE where it's advised that folding the best hand on the river is one of the bigger mistakes one can make.

here is a hand, that although not mine is similar to some of the situations that I'm talking about:

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9h, As.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 5 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 4h, 9d, 2s (3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 2d (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, SB folds.

River: (6.50 BB) Jd (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

in this example, the Hero bet/folded and was praised for it, but, I myself have trouble laying down here.
sure utg+2 could have a flush or a jack, but did he/she really call me to the river with only overcards and/or a backdoor flush draw?

I've made the call and won as well as paying off a donk on the river.

what situations should I be looking to bet/fold... or should I be more inclined to check/call?

overall I've been a marginal winning player, but I think that it's spots like these that keep me from consistently beating games

[Dan87]

i would check call here for the reason that you do want to go to show down. Also it gives him a chance to bluff, and the times where he is betting with j9 or a made draw, you lose just as much as bet/folding but you get to showdown.

People will probably disagree with me though.

[kickflip252]

see, that's what i was thinking, check call for the s.d. is better than bet fold... i usually only bet if i'm certain i'll call a raise or if i'm certain i'm ahead.
plus if i check call i get the info of what cards he/she was playing... and that always helps decisions later.

but if i do bet out... how often should i be bet folding?

[HoneyBadger]

I already thought the hand looked familiar [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I bet because you loose too much all the times he will check behind with some weak pair. This was not a super easy laydown btw. But what alerted me was the fact he cold called 2 on the flop in a small pot. Then the board paired low and he still called. I felt I was being messed with, the hand didn't feel right. Was this some weird slowplay on a set? I mean, the flop was 942 rainbow, the pot 3 SB, someone bets, someone raises, and he calls? Getting 2.5:1? I had to bet the turn when the board paired, I would've folded to a raise there. But he just called. Maybe he was just calling along passively with 45? I don't know, I gave myself a reasonable chance to have the best hand. I would not c/f, so then I'd c/c. But if I'm going to call anyway it's usually better to bet. Was he bluffing with that raise? Maybe. But I genuinely thought he already had me beat earlier, combined with the chance he did outdraw me, and the fact that river bluffs are quite rare because he expects me to call, made it a fold for me.

I'm actually quite sure he had a set/fullhouse now.

[Jiggymike]

This is actually usually a good bet and a good fold, NH Badger. There is a good chance that player is calling down with a weaker 9 or even a pp below 9s...nothing has come to deter him yet, its fairly easy to think that aggressor has nothing but overs on this board. If you check here he will usually check behind with a weak pair but only bet if he has you beat - therefore you aren't getting value from when you are ahead and are losing a bet when you are behind.

The fold is partially read dependent. Against a LAG who will make this play with a busted draw (I don't know on this board, A3?) you would probably have to call. However that Jd is not very scary and a raise on that board with a typical opponent means you are way beat. Notice Badgers notes that this guy cold-called flop...probably wouldn't cold call with AJ or something of that ilk and then play turn as well. Either a VERY rare good raise or the goods and it's almost always the goods.

[Dan87]

The way villain played the hand (cold calling flop, calling turn) I think c/c is better merely to see if that is how he would play a flopped set, plus it gives him a chance to bluff if he was staying around with 35s or even more retarded draws like a-3.

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
i would check call here for the reason that you do want to go to show down

[/ QUOTE ]

I think bet/calling is a lot better than check/calling. You need to get value out of your TPTK (until river) and not be afraid of a rivered overcard or backdoor flush.

Haupt_234