Tough turn decision- whats your play?

[Mr.Poker]

sorry for no converter, doesn't support site.

No reads, $20 MTT. Blinds are 75/150, no ante

Folded to Villian in CO+1 (6700) who limps.
Hero (6900) is Button with Qc9c calls 150.
SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: pot is 600
Qd 9h 3d

BB checks, Villian bets 600, Hero raises to 1600, SB folds, BB folds, Villian calls 1000.

Turn: (pot 3800) 8d

Villian checks.

What is your play?

[registrar]

I'd raise a wee bit more on the flop and check behind on the turn. I'm a station, so I'd call a 1/2 bet on the river unimproved.

[FortunaMaximus]

Pop to t400 PF. Looks fine though.

Flop looks good too, maybe slightly bigger.

Turn, he potted flop, so I'd probe turn, giving off strength, maybe t1.8k, see what he does. He'll fold, call, shove with those stack sizes.

I'd check behind or wouldn't like calling river bet UI. Calling a turn c/r shove some of the time. Perfectly happy if he folds here.

Purely readless, yeah, take the free card and call river, maybe a thin v-bet.

[Bakes]

400 is too small FM, its gotta be like 600-650.

Flop looks fine to me, a large part of his range is Qx broadways (QT QJ KQ), obv JT is in there but also T9/98s and you dont want to lose them so eaesily. If he has a set I'm going broke, and really only 33 makes sense.

Turn is not really a bad card at all, you are only losing to one hand in his range. I'm betting 2k with the intention of calling a shove.

[registrar]

Maybe I'm seeing monsters under the bed, but the turn hits every draw there is so I'd check and let them bet the river. However, I'm very much open to persuasion.

[Bakes]

Well, I mean come on there's only one draw on the flop.

JT is a distinct possibility, but Villains preflop play is kinda inconsistent with his flop play if he has that. I have a hard time thinking that he would limp JTs or JTo, a pretty passive play, and then full pot a dry flop with a naked OESD and a player behind?

[registrar]

It would useful to know the site but I would guess it's a euro site and I think his pf, flop and turn play is entirely consistent with either oesd, fd or fd+. And if he doesn't have any of those and we bet big on the turn he's folding anything worse than we have.

Pre-flop raise is good.

[Mr.Poker]

Here are my thoughts...

(Site is betfair btw)
I ended up checking behind here. I thought the 8d pretty much hit any draw which he could have had on the flop and i think checking here maximises value against the hands we beat and minimises loss against hands whicih beat us. (although would like to here people's thoughts about this).

I agree that Qx broadway is a large part of his range so by checking we are letting him draw to three outs and are likely to get value on the river out of this hand. I also agree that J10 seems unlikely given the way he played the hand. 33 is realistically his only set possibility but given he doesnt reraise on the flop or lead on the turn pretty much rules this out for me.

With these stack sizes, I dont think you can bet/fold this turn so checking or being prepared to get it all in is your only real option, but checking maximises our value IMO.

What river bet are you prepared to call if the river card is(i) another diamond (ii)a 10 or J (iii) A or K (iv) low card i.e. not a danger card??

[Requin]

Raise PF, check the turn.

[Bakes]

WEll i'm an idiot, read the flop as rainbow. Disregard.