downswings?

[surfsk869]

as of late the poker gods have been upset with me...i gradually built my br up to just under 2k since august, over the past 4 days im down to 1.4 k (playing 50nl 6 tabling).... is this much variance (downswing) uncommon in such a short time span? or is it more of a possibility that my game is off. any advice is GREATLY appreciated.

[hongster]

Sheez go to beats brags variance/microstakes. 0.25/0.50 is micro.

And yes, double digit buyin swings are entirely normal. You need a lot of hands (some say 100k+) to determine if u are indeed a winning/losing player.

But maybe running bad is also causing you to play bad. This is often the case. Take a break for awhile and the poker gods will smile again.

[surfsk869]

thanks for the advice, i feel somewhat better aside from the fact in a few hundred dollars poorer.well, ive got 85k hands under the belt according to ptracker and never had a downswing this big this quickly. maybe the first one is the hardest :0

[steel108]

If your dropping 28 buyins in 4 days at 50NL, there is certainly something fundamentally wrong with your game. I don't think you can chalk this up to variance. Post hands and get feedback on your play.

[hongster]

Everyone eventually runs worse than they ever imagined possible. Its a statistical fact. Same rationale as 10,000 monkeys banging away at typewriters eventually producing Hamlet.

[blackize]

That big of a downswing at 50NL is almost assuredly massive leakage.

Also if you assume that Hamlet is 10000 LETTERS long, obviously it's much more, this means that the probability of a monkey creating shakespeare is (1/26)^10000 or 1.84 x 10^-14150 or for all intents and purposes, impossible

[surfsk869]

haha no no, my br = 1.4k....i meant i am down from 2k a few days ago, not in total down 1.4k.im not THAT bad. 19/12 preflop,postflop play is OK - i hope 50nl wont get the best of me.

[kitaristi0]

yes you are running bad and yes you are playing bad too. also mods have been notified.

[surfsk869]

thanks for the friendly help [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[hongster]

[ QUOTE ]

Also if you assume that Hamlet is 10000 LETTERS long, obviously it's much more, this means that the probability of a monkey creating shakespeare is (1/26)^10000 or 1.84 x 10^-14150 or for all intents and purposes, impossible

[/ QUOTE ]

Just making the point that any event, no matter how statistically improbable, will eventually occur if repeated a sufficient number of times. Agreed - the run length in the real world is hardly sufficient to suffice, but it still an interesting theoretical point.