Can my team win the BCS? (Long)

[mattsey9]

With all of the questions regarding the championship status of Rutgers' football team this season, it raised several questions in my mind regarding the potential chances of my alma mater, Indiana. Here's how the season would shake out in my mind if the Cream & Crimson ran the table and shocked the world.

Preseason: Indiana is not ranked in any pre-season poll. No votes whatsoever.

Week 1: Vs. Western Michigan (0-0) 9-2-06: Indiana's home opener sees the Hoosiers win 39-20 versus their opponents from the MAC conference. Little notice is taken nationally, and the ensuing polls reflect that.

Week 2: At Ball State (1-0) 9-9-06: A come from behind squeaker against their second consecutive opponent from the MAC. The Cardinals lead throughout, but the Hoosiers prevail in the end. Anyone who was paying attention considers this a lucky win, and their poll votes reflect it. No votes for the Hoosiers.

Week 3: Vs. Southern Illinois (1-0) 9-16-06: A see-saw battle sees the Hoosiers tie the game in the closing minutes and win 41-35 in OT. The 1-AA Salukis run on the Hoosiers at will, but Indiana manages to stop them in the extra session. Beating a 1-AA team in OT gets the Hoosiers no notice nationally. Still nothing to note in the polls.

Week 4: Vs. Connecticut (1-1) 9-23-06: Indiana looks better than they have all season in a 35-14 dismantling of the Huskies. James Hardy pulls in three TDs in a rout of their Big East opponents. Still no love for Indiana, although they do appear for the first time all season in the "Also receiving votes" section of the poll. "Indiana 2" leads most observers to think that the beat reporters for the Bloomington H-T and the Indianapolis Star each threw the local dog a bone.

Week 5: Vs. Wisconsin (3-1) 9-30-06: Wisconsin is a perennial fixture at the top of the Big 10 in recent years, but their hopes for a title were likely dashed the previous week by Michigan. The unranked Badgers are always dangerous, and give the Hoosiers their most severe test of the season before falling 21-17 at Memorial Stadium. Wisconsin effectively drops out of the Big 10 title race, and Indiana falls just short of the promised land with a 28th place finish in each of the two national polls.

Week 6: At Illinois (2-3) 10-7-06: When Illinois schedules you for Homecoming, you know that you're the Rodney Dangerfield of the league. The 5-0 Hoosiers struggle mightily out of the gate as the Illini storm out to a large early lead. In the end, heroic performances by Kellen Lewis & James Hardy spearhead the successful comeback and a last second field goal gives the Hoosiers a 6-0 record and a 34-32 victory over the rival Illini. In related news, high school basketball prodigy Eric Gordon leaves the game convinced that maybe Illinois isn't the place for him. The pollsters finally reward the Hoosiers for their start, but only just. Indiana is ranked 25th, just behind the 24th rated Scarlet Knights of Rutgers.

Week 7: Vs. #15 Iowa (5-1) 10-14-06: Finally, after a 31-28 nailbiter versus the Hawkeyes, the Hoosiers have quieted some of their doubters and claimed a victory against a nationally rated foe. The Hoosier defense forces a late turnover to hang on and propel them to an unprecedented 7-0 start. National notice comes in large doses after this victory, and Indiana moves ahead of fellow unbeatens Rutgers and Boise State into the #17 spot in the AP poll. BCS ratings are out as well, and the Hoosiers stake their claim to national championship consideration for the first time ever by claiming the #17 spot.

Week 8: At #1 Ohio State (7-0) 10-21-06: OSU fans will remember the 1987 OSU-IU tilt as the "Darkest Day in Ohio State Football History". Most Indiana fans entered the day hoping for a respectable showing, but few expected what happened. Aided by a questionable penalty call on a Ted Ginn, Jr. punt return in the fourth quarter, Indiana officially started getting measured for their glass slipper by upsetting the Buckeyes in Columbus by a 17-13 final. Indiana won the turnover battle 4-0 and used the resulting field position to set up scoring drives. The nation is stunned and Indiana soars in the polls. The Hoosiers climb to #7 in the AP and in the BCS as well. Buckeye boss Jim Tressel draws comparisons to Earle Bruce. Nick's English Hut reports record beer sales.

Week 9: Vs. Michigan St. (4-4) 10-28-06: Sports talk shows shower the Hoosiers with praise the entire week. Coach Terry Hoeppner is praised as latest product of Miami's Cradle of Coaches, and the Hoosiers enjoy their first home sellout of the season. John Mellencamp sings before the game, and Indiana continues their roll with a 46-21 beatdown of the slumping Spartans. Indiana remains at #7 in the polls as all the teams above them win.

Week 10: At Minnesota (3-6) 11-4-06: With Michigan on the horizon, many doomsayers point to this week's game as the classic trap scenario. The Metrodome has long been a chamber of horrors for the Hoosiers, and the start of the game is no different. Turnovers stake the Gophers to a 17-0 first half lead before James Hardy scores on a Kellen Lewis pass just before intermission. The second half sees the Hoosiers flex their muscle on both sides of the ball and IU wins 27-20. USC is upset and the Hoosiers gain a spot in the polls to move to #6. Ahead of them, in order of ranking, are Michigan, West Virginia, Texas, Louisville and Auburn.

Week 11: Vs. #1 Michigan (10-0) 11-11-06: This, Hoosier football fans feel, is where the ride is likely to end. Michigan assumed the #1 perch after OSU fell earlier in the season, and has Cinderella in their crosshairs. Memorial Stadium is jammed to the gills with students and alumni. Sharp eyed observers see Jane Pauley and Kevin Kline tailgating in the parking lot wearing their best Cream and Crimson gear. The game is contested in monsoon-like conditions with heavy, driving rain and strong winds. Indiana draws first blood with an early touchdown but is quickly countered by 10 Michigan points as the result of fumbles caused by the wet ball. The score remains unchanged until the final minute when Kellen Lewis sneaks in for the winning touchdown. The final score of 14-10 sends the fans onto the field, and the goalposts come down and are paraded throughout the campus for three straight days. As the last team from a major conference with an undefeated record, the Indiana Hoosiers ascend to the #1 ranking in both polls and the BCS standings.

O.K., it is possible. But why could Indiana get away with it while others (Rutgers, Boise St., Tulane) can't.

1. The Big 10, even in down years, give you the ability to play traditional national powers. OSU and Michigan aren't likely to schedule Boise St., and are even unlikelier to play them on the road. Even in down years, a victory over a 2-3 loss Michigan game gives you more credibility than a win over a 1 loss Hawaii squad. The credibility may not always be deserved, but perception is reality.

2. Indiana played the #1 team in the country on two separate occasions during their season. The wins allowed them to make quantum leaps in the polls. This would not be possible in Conference USA, the Big East or the Mountain West, and would only be possible about once every 15-20 years in the top tier leagues. If Indiana did not have Michigan on their schedule, they likely never would have gotten the nod had Michigan remained undefeated.

3. Nobody else from the Big 12, SEC, or Pac 10 finished unbeaten. Let's be realistic, if IU, Texas, Auburn & USC all finish the regular season undefeated, the Hoosiers aren't getting the nod.

So, what did I learn? In a perfect world, my school can in fact win the NCAA football crown. However, it is also possible for them to go 13-0 and still be on the outside looking in. Looks like the only guaranteed way to make sure of a berth is to institute a playoff. Coincidentally, that should happen the same season that Indiana goes 13-0...

Please win the bucket......

[gusmahler]

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3. Nobody else from the Big 12, SEC, or Pac 10 finished unbeaten. Let's be realistic, if IU, Texas, Auburn & USC all finish the regular season undefeated, the Hoosiers aren't getting the nod.


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You're giving Indiana short shrift based on past perception of them. If they beat #1 OSU AND #1 Michigan in the same year, they would be a lock for the title game.

[mattsey9]

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3. Nobody else from the Big 12, SEC, or Pac 10 finished unbeaten. Let's be realistic, if IU, Texas, Auburn & USC all finish the regular season undefeated, the Hoosiers aren't getting the nod.


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You're giving Indiana short shrift based on past perception of them. If they beat #1 OSU AND #1 Michigan in the same year, they would be a lock for the title game.

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In most seasons, yes. But who do you kick out? Texas? Auburn? USC? Remember, they would have to be passed by Indiana as they start the season ranked ahead of them. Past perception enters the picture even before the season starts.

[AngusThermopyle]

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3. Nobody else from the Big 12, SEC, or Pac 10 finished unbeaten. Let's be realistic, if IU, Texas, Auburn & USC all finish the regular season undefeated, the Hoosiers aren't getting the nod.


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You're giving Indiana short shrift based on past perception of them. If they beat #1 OSU AND #1 Michigan in the same year, they would be a lock for the title game.

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Lock?

Western Michigan , Ball State , Southern Illinois, Connecticut

Arkansas, Nebraska, Notre Dame

Which non-conference schedule would carry more weight?

[gusmahler]

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3. Nobody else from the Big 12, SEC, or Pac 10 finished unbeaten. Let's be realistic, if IU, Texas, Auburn & USC all finish the regular season undefeated, the Hoosiers aren't getting the nod.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're giving Indiana short shrift based on past perception of them. If they beat #1 OSU AND #1 Michigan in the same year, they would be a lock for the title game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lock?

Western Michigan , Ball State , Southern Illinois, Connecticut

Arkansas, Nebraska, Notre Dame

Which non-conference schedule would carry more weight?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're assuming that both Michigan and OSU finish 11-1, right (of course, this means Texas can't be undefeated)? How many teams beat 2 11-1 teams the same year (not to mention a 2-loss, top 15 Wisconsin team. They would be the lockiest lock in the history of locks.

Look at Rutgers, they get to #2 in the computers merely for beating 1 top 10 team. This hypo has IU beating 2 #1 teams. Lock.

USC would get the other spot, because the comps say the Pac-10 is stronger than the SEC.

[Bulldog]

[ QUOTE ]
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3. Nobody else from the Big 12, SEC, or Pac 10 finished unbeaten. Let's be realistic, if IU, Texas, Auburn & USC all finish the regular season undefeated, the Hoosiers aren't getting the nod.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're giving Indiana short shrift based on past perception of them. If they beat #1 OSU AND #1 Michigan in the same year, they would be a lock for the title game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lock?

Western Michigan , Ball State , Southern Illinois, Connecticut

Arkansas, Nebraska, Notre Dame

Which non-conference schedule would carry more weight?

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Cal

OSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa

Which conference schedule would carry more weight?

[ridonkulous]

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3. Nobody else from the Big 12, SEC, or Pac 10 finished unbeaten. Let's be realistic, if IU, Texas, Auburn & USC all finish the regular season undefeated, the Hoosiers aren't getting the nod.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're giving Indiana short shrift based on past perception of them. If they beat #1 OSU AND #1 Michigan in the same year, they would be a lock for the title game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lock?

Western Michigan , Ball State , Southern Illinois, Connecticut

Arkansas, Nebraska, Notre Dame

Which non-conference schedule would carry more weight?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cal

OSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa

Which conference schedule would carry more weight?

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Iowa?

Thank god their out of conference schedule was a joke, so they will at worst finish at .500, looking like 2-6 in the Big Ten though.

This Iowa team is awful.

[AngusThermopyle]

As above, Iowa?
And look at the human poll history of 11-1 Wisconsin (assuming they beat Buffalo). They have cracked the top 10/11, not by beating people, but by not losing. Add a loss to Indiana to make them 10-2, and they drop below #20 in the human polls.
Nice you omitted Oregon.

Basic fact is, if USC and Florida/Auburn had undefeated years, they would end up #1 & #2 in both human polls in OP's scenario. No way even an undefeated Indiana climbs over them in the human polls.
So it would come down to the computers having to place Indiana #1 and put USC and the SEC school below them so the mix of %'s would be right.

"Lock"? No. Not saying they couldn't make it in a three way race of big undefeateds, but they would be far from a "lock".

[gusmahler]

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Basic fact is, if USC and Florida/Auburn had undefeated years, they would end up #1 & #2 in both human polls in OP's scenario. No way even an undefeated Indiana climbs over them in the human polls.
So it would come down to the computers having to place Indiana #1 and put USC and the SEC school below them so the mix of %'s would be right.


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People laugh at Rutgers schedule. But they're #2 in the computers! Indiana would be beating TWO #1 teams and has a much tougher schedule than Rutgers.

And I think you underestimate human voters. More people would vote them #1 for beating OSU and Michigan than you think.

[MyTurn2Raise]

if there were 2 or less undefeated teams, there is absolutely no chance an undefeated big10 team would not be playing for the national title.

For reference, look at this year's Wisconsin team. Even without playing Ohio State, if the Badgers had beaten Michigan, they would be top 2 in the BCS right now.

Big10, SEC, Pac10, and BigXII have no shot at being locked out if there are 2 or less undefeated teams.