explain hoodini10's play here to me...

[pokerraja]

wtf am i missing? hoodini10 is a great player right? didnt he win FTOP event 1? and he has numerous big wins. how does he make this play here against me? we are both top 5 in chips with 40 players left. average stack is close to 11K. the field is horrid. we are ITM. im sure many dont like my play here either, but i dont mind racing with this short stack here.

hoodini10 has only been at the table 1 orbit. he has no idea who i am. im posting this hand to get a better understanding of the players at stars. ive noticed im constantly getting hammered by these super aggressive players willing to flip at all times. is it good strategy for him to take a flip at this stage of our tourney? i just feel its a very high variance call by him. we are flipping coins at best,i will admit a small percentage of times i will have AQ here, but damn wtf is having a 45K stack at that stage of the tourney worth this risk?


PokerStars Game #7057181216: Tournament #35678421, $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit -
Level IX (300/600) - 2006/11/17 - 01:23:31 (ET)
Table '35678421 41' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: misalu (20535 in chips)
Seat 2: hoodini10 (25036 in chips)
Seat 3: GabeTheKid (10260 in chips)
Seat 4: MattyFlushes (18525 in chips)
Seat 5: EvitaPeron (4845 in chips)
Seat 6: chronicburn (10210 in chips)
Seat 7: dcplays (14150 in chips)
Seat 8: KOLT65 (3995 in chips)
Seat 9: GtownGambler (5380 in chips)
misalu: posts the ante 50
hoodini10: posts the ante 50
GabeTheKid: posts the ante 50
MattyFlushes: posts the ante 50
EvitaPeron: posts the ante 50
chronicburn: posts the ante 50
dcplays: posts the ante 50
KOLT65: posts the ante 50
GtownGambler: posts the ante 50
hoodini10: posts small blind 300
GabeTheKid: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to misalu [9s 9c]
MattyFlushes: folds
EvitaPeron: folds
chronicburn: folds
dcplays: folds
KOLT65: raises 3345 to 3945 and is all-in
GtownGambler: folds
misalu: raises 16540 to 20485 and is all-in
hoodini10: raises 4501 to 24986 and is all-in
GabeTheKid: folds
*** FLOP *** [2h 4d 6h]
*** TURN *** [2h 4d 6h] [Th]
*** RIVER *** [2h 4d 6h Th] [5s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
hoodini10: shows [Ah Kh] (a flush, Ace high)
misalu: shows [9s 9c] (a pair of Nines)
hoodini10 collected 33080 from side pot
KOLT65: shows [8s 8d] (a pair of Eights)
hoodini10 collected 12885 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 45965 Main pot 12885. Side pot 33080. | Rake 0
Board [2h 4d 6h Th 5s]
Seat 1: misalu (button) showed [9s 9c] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 2: hoodini10 (small blind) showed [Ah Kh] and won (45965) with a flush, Ace
high

[pokerraja]

this is not a bad beat post btw. i want to learn this concept here of cEV or whatever its called. is their merit to his call? would others here make it? is this what makes great tourney players?

[Rekwob]

im not saying its right but i call in his spot pretty much everytime

[TwistedEcho]

erm, AK has to be ahead of your range. You repush isolate here with like AJ+ 88+ KQ? Thats prob the tightest i can image

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.2485 % 36.45% 05.80% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 57.7515 % 51.96% 05.80% { AhKh }

and on the offchance you are supernit

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.3506 % 38.71% 09.64% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 51.6494 % 42.01% 09.64% { AhKh }

and he has overlay.

So pretty much AT WORSE he is flipping w/ you with overlay, and a lot of the time hes fairly far ahead.

[TwistedEcho]

[ QUOTE ]
im not saying its right but i call in his spot pretty much everytime

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't imagine folding AK here ever either.

[Bakes]

perfectly acceptable call, play w/ ranges in stove and you'll see its fine. also you guys aren't really that deep...

[FortunaMaximus]

Are you making this isolate push with AA? (If you pause before thinking over your reply, you likely do the same at the table.)

KK? Yeah, and he's ~30% against that. The rest he's flipping if you're only shoving pairs, and he's got AQ and KQ destroyed.

And when shortie shoves, and you isolate (which is correct, btw), he also is not making a mistake knowingly taking what usually hits your range as a 45%.

And if he loses, he's not out of the MTT.

Here's the good news, if you get into 20 races with him across the long term with those same exact hands, you'll win 11 of them, lose 9 of them.

What makes truly great tourney players is recognizing every edge, no matter how slight, and having the balls to take 'em. And the ability to recognize situations where passing up a very slight edge for a better edge when the risk/reward scenario doesn't demand it in a MTT indicates a fold.

The latter, if ever, is rarely the case PF.

You played it fine.

[pokerraja]

thanks guys for the responses. i just figured with his huge stack at this juncture of the tourney that his play was not correct. i thought there would present much better oppurtunity to chip up and advance than take a coin flip here. i have much to learn obv.

While I will admit his play is not horrible, but is one that guys like Rizen or others with his playing style make? It seems obvious with the super aggro players its a instant call.

[Supwithbates]

yes, even tight players like rizen or adanthar would call here. His hand is ahead of your range, and he's often flipping with overlay

[steeser]

I guess I'm in the minority, but I don't particularly like being the 3rd player all-in (albeit with a short stack involved) with AK.