FTP 30/60: C/R'ed on river

[SteveL91]

Villain is Philuva. Probably one of the best players in the game, and I believe a 2+2er. I'm not really sure how he views me, but I'd guess as someone who has some idea of what they're doing, but nothing special. I haven't been going out of my way to avoid him, but since he's seated to my immediate left on two tables, we've tangled a few times this session. From previous sessions, I know he's capable of mixing up his play, and isn't entirely ABC.

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $30/$60
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB 3-bets</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6BB, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 10BB

Sometimes I'll raise the flop or the turn, but given the dry nature of the board, and his ability to value bet, I decided on calling the flop/turn and raising the river. Clearly, that didn't entirely work out. Against a worse player, I think it's an easy fold to the river C/R, but against a very good player, I talked myself into it. I thought that he'd also pull this with a PP looking to push me off a marginal A or better PP.

Is the call justifiable, or should I just fold, admit I've been outplayed and move on?

Thanks,
Steve

[geormiet]

having played with you a lot, i would NEVER consider doing this as a bluff, and I would have every reason to do it with a better hand.

He can easily put you on a weak ace. Good limit players don't think: "how can I get him to fold top pair" very often, and this is def not one of those cases. He has you beat and this is almost surely a value checkraise.

[SteveL91]

Well, I would have played quite a few PPs this way as well, but your point is still valid. I thought for a few seconds, told myself to fold, and called anyway. I know I'm too much of a pay-off station, and it's something I've been working on. It's a long road...

Thanks for the input,
Steve

[Dane S]

I would fold. A very good player could mix this spot up well enough in a game theory sense that it costs you money either way, but a multitabling tag is generally not coming up with a lot of creative bluffs on the fly. If he's randomly adding a few here and there, you must simply tip your hat... or you could randomly add in some calls, but this gets [censored] complicated and isn't worth the microscopic EV gain imo.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

In my entire online holdem career, when I have taken the line the villain has taken in this hand, on that board, I have always had a hand that beats A7o. Not once did I consider making this play with a hand like 88. David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth talk about making this play with a hand like 88 in this spot in HPFAP, presumably to get the villain to fold a hand like a weak ace. In live play against the right opponent this play definitely has its place. But not online, becuz nobody folds top pair HU. I dont know you Steve, but youre probably a good winning player, and I know you knew you should fold to that river line against this player, but you still called anways, and thats precisely my point. If good winning players cant make this fold, then that means a very good player such as Philuva will not be making this play with 88, which means you can make this laydown.

[geormiet]

Wouldn't you cap 77+ in this spot pf?

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

I'd probably call against this opponent unless I'd been calling a lot.

[SparkyDog]

I made a post earlier but deleted and thought about the hand some more after I saw a few guys say call. But I didn't change my mind really. So I might be missing something, but I think you're in pretty bad shape here.

I don't mind your call/call/raise line except I'd want a better kicker since I think he'd realize the line when he saw it, and fold most worse made hands that he bet. It's pretty hard for him to suspect a bluff too, since it'd require you call-bluffing on a ragged ace high board vs. PF 3bettor, and we all know how profitable that is. If there's a street to raise here I think it's the flop.

Once he checkraises the river you're relying on a 3rd level bluff with a hand that's been good enough to 3bet PF and bet the flop and turn. I suppose it's possible he took another shot at making you fold on the turn, and then yet another 2BB shot on the river, but I don't think you're good 1/10 times here.

Another thing I was wondering was what Phil would be check/calling on this river. I don't see much value in a river bet honestly, because I think phil would just value bet anything he'd call with. There's just nothing that you could get to the river with that you're bluffing with, that I see. So I think if you're going to call a checkraise, then betting the river might not even be +EV.

[geormiet]

[ QUOTE ]
So I think if you're going to call a checkraise, then betting the river might not even be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an interesting river decision against a thinking player who views you as a thinking player.

if three's no tilt or metagame involved (there often is though) I think checking behind is not nearly as ugly as it seems.

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
if three's no tilt or metagame involved (there often is though) I think checking behind is not nearly as ugly as it seems.


[/ QUOTE ]

After giving it a little thought, I don't think there is any hand I would check/call this river with. If I check here, I am either check/raising or check/folding 100% of the time. So, at least against me, betting this river is really bad with anything other than 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a hand that beats AQ