Made a dumb bet, need help.

[wegs the wegs]

I have never really gambled on sports so I'm completely lost on how to handle this situation but I think there is a way to trim my losses here.

Situation: Back at the beginning of the CFB season my friend who is a Michigan Wolverine fanatic. He is the really irritating arrogant kind at that. The kid promised me at the beginning of the season that Michigan would go undefeated throughout the regular season. I expected Michigan to be better than last year but no way were they beating both ND and OSU on the road. And at the beginning of the season I expected at least Wisky, PSU, or Iowa to sneak in a win somewhere in there.

Anyways, I gave him 10:1 odds that Michigan would not be undefeated going into bowl season. He put down 20. Im out $200 if OSU goes down on Saturday. I don't want to lose 200 bucks. I know it's not much but it's a little more than I can afford to lose right now. (Had a lot more money three months ago).

Now I do have some cash available. How do I limit my losses here? Is hedging the right way to go here (or even the right term)? Moneyline on Michigan for how much? Sorry for being so clueless on all of this stuff.

[mulebennett]

hedging is definitely the right move. that bet was absolutely idiotic to make in the first place. 2 nice road wins and you're out $200?

michigan is +214 on pinnacle for moneyline. if you bet $70 to win $149.80, then you are out $50 if michigan wins, and you are out $50 if ohio state wins.

in the future, don't ever give someone 10:1 to win the nat'l championship if they are a legit contender. 4:1 maybe, 10:1 is ridiculous.

[wiper]

if he wasn't a fan, he probably wouldn't have even remembered..

i can't even guess how many dumb bets like that my friends and i have forgotten about over the years...

[Post-Oak]

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hedging is definitely the right move.


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No. It depends on what chances you think Michigan has to beat Ohio St. For example, if you think they are 25% to win this game, then hedging at +214 would be stupid.

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that bet was absolutely idiotic to make in the first place.


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No, he got good odds.

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2 nice road wins and you're out $200?


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No. Two nice road wins does not guarantee an undefeated season.

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in the future, don't ever give someone 10:1 to win the nat'l championship if they are a legit contender.


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My God, could you be any more clueless???

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4:1 maybe, 10:1 is ridiculous.

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You can get 3.5 to 1 on Michigan to win the title RIGHT NOW. Offering 10 to 1 at the beginning of the season was perfectly reasonable, and probably still ++EV given what we know now. You don't seem to understand the concept of hindsight bias.

What odds were books offering on Michigan to go 11-0 in the regular season? I would be shocked if it wasn't BETTER than 10 to 1.

[beetman]

Absolutely idiotic??? Michigan was easy to find at +220 against Notre Dame, and the current Pinnacle line against Ohio St is +219 (it was as high as +248). The odds of winning those 2 games at +220 and +219 are +920, and you're claiming +1000 was a bad bet when they had to win 10 other games?

Based on Pinnacle's no-vig closing moneyline, plus the current +232 no-vig line, the fair line on this bet was around +3500. The original poster made a great bet.

[Thremp]

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The original poster made a great bet.

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take this everyday and twice on sunday

[easternbloc]

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The original poster made a great bet.

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take this everyday and twice on sunday

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this is a great bet as long as you don't mind losing 200$. one of the basic principles of gambling is never to gamble with money you cannot afford to lose. in this case, he made a dumb decision to risk that much money because apparently he does not feel comfortable about it.


my advice:
just suck it up and ship the 200$ if they lose. it's just money.

[wegs the wegs]

[ QUOTE ]

this is a great bet as long as you don't mind losing 200$. one of the basic principles of gambling is never to gamble with money you cannot afford to lose. in this case, he made a dumb decision to risk that much money because apparently he does not feel comfortable about it.

my advice:
just suck it up and ship the 200$ if they lose. it's just money.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would like to mention the fact once again that at the time I had more money than I knew what to do with, hence my willingness to bet the $200. At the time I could easily blow that amount and not be one bit upset about it. Since then I have quit poker and not made a dime in my new commission-only sales position so my assets have dimished greatly.

Anyways, I think I'm just going to ride it out and hope for the best. I do believe OSU will win the game. And even though hedging my bet might be easier on me if Michigan does pull the upset I don't think I can justify making myself lose a fixed amount no matter who wins. Thanks all for the help, feel free to add any other suggestions.

[Post-Oak]

My advice is to let it ride.

You are in a bad spot. Nobody would want to be laying 10 to 1 that Ohio State wins Saturday. However, if you believe that OSU will win this game more than 68% (a reasonable assumption, and the correct one in my opinion), than it would be even more negative EV to hedge now.

Let it ride. If OSU wins, laugh at your friend when Michigan goes 10-1. Pretend you never worried.

[MCS]

As others have pointed out, you made a good first bet.

Personally, I'd just let it ride here. OSU is favored to win the game Saturday, so maybe you can console yourself with that.

"The most likely outcome is that I win $20. The most likely outcome is that I win $20. The most likely outcome..."