Thoughts on hand-reading and being objective with Villain's hand range

[Bullet_Dodger]

not sure where to put this, ill just post it here since its my most active forum. I was sweating my buddy in the Second Chance tourney tonight, (not a 2+2er, although a competent player) when this hand came about ...

Note: sorry, don’t have the hand history or remember the exact stack sizes. But this is pretty close.

<u>General Info:</u>
Blinds: 100/200
Hero: t10,500 (SB) Villain: 11,000 (Button)
Hero: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG raises to 600, it was folded around to Villain on the Button who called the 600. Hero raises out of the SB to t2400, UTG folds, and Villain pushes all-in. Hero thinks for 3-4 seconds and then calls the push. I asked him on IM right after why he called the all-in, and he responded with "I put his hand range on 44+ and AT+.” (Hero is just under 47/53 against this range, given pot overlay it’s probably a call) He continued with “Since there’s so much dead money out there, I have to call. I‘m playing to win, I know I have him". (almost his exact words) That's funny, because I have no idea where he got that hand range from. Villain had folded almost every hand in the tourney, and the only hands he entered so far were AA and KK, both hands he more than doubled up on. Villain never defended his blinds, and never made a bluff. He has open-folded the SB every time. Hell, Villain folded to two all-in previously, and when AK &gt; AJ on a Kxx board, he proclaimed how proud he was that he had folded QQ. Villain's hand range here is more like TT+,AK at the very loosest.

It was a terrible call by my friend, not because of the results, (Villain flipped over KK and held up) but because my guy made Villain’s hand range fit the odds needed in order to make the call correct. I don't care how much is in the pot, you can not let that alone dictate your decision. His hand was [censored] crushed, and we both knew this.

Now how does this relate to anyone else? Because it happens in every tournament by a lot of players, both bad and extremely talented. Many players make it far in a tournament and then have the ol “Mike Matusow blow up", making a bad call that takes them out of the tournament. This is because they don't look at things rationally or objectively. Coming up with these hand ranges in your head or through systems like Poker Stove is great, but if your not going to use it objectively then what is the use? Math is great, but math cant make the decisions for you. Only you can.

I was going to bring up Nath’s AQ push, but I was not there long enough to get a read so his play could have been correct.

[FortunaMaximus]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero raises out of the SB to t2400

[/ QUOTE ]

Quite wasteful on an implied odds angle, I think.

UTG raise, Button flatcall, you don't want to repop, you want to stack an UTG range and let him c-bet a 3-way fattened pot, keeping the Button interested. And when you have a 7xx flop, time to take 'em to school.

The rest's range massaging.

[Plus1Plus1]

Excellent post bullet. A huge leak I have is not being able to be objective in the heat of the moment, specifically when it comes to figuring out when to lay down those middle pairs. I have gone bust countless times with 99-QQ.

[Soulman]

How do you assign proper ranges? It's hard, really it is. These are some important points I can think of:
<ul type="square"> [*]Experience. Without it, you'll probably miss a lot and define too wide or too narrow ranges. [*]Ruthless honesty. Don't assign a range that's too tight if you're scared of going out and use this as an excuse to fold. Conversely, don't do what OP's friend did. [*]Reads. The most important part. Going by PokerTracker stats is _somewhat_ helpful if you're not paying too much attention (like I do at first in a tourney if I have 4+ up), but no substitute for the real thing. [/list]

[registrar]

Without wishing to get all mystical, if you're on your game, I really believe that we can win a lot of chips, where others don't, through:

a) trusting your gut when the hand and action, as would be posted, seem to suggest an alternative line. I think a lot of this comes down to timing tells and instincts drawn from the metagame, particularly when snapping off bluffs or calling reraises. You have to be really on your game for this to be +EV but I really believe it makes a huge difference. I've posted various hands where it was clear that my line was, objectively speaking, incorrect. But I just 'knew' I was ahead or behind or whatever. I've given this some thought and had an epiphany one night, very high, when I realised in one case that the speed of the raise, along with my position, villain's and the player that villain was, meant that he had AK, like always. I kept the opinion to myself, though, because this sort of nonsense doesn't really stand up to rational analysis.

b) sucking out in huge pots when you get it completely wrong.

[Soulman]

registrar,

I agree about the gut feeling. Sometimes you just have to be there and have the feel for the table - it can't really be explained. Obviously you can't take it too far, especially if your feelings always lead you to miss [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Bullet_Dodger]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero raises out of the SB to t2400

[/ QUOTE ]

Quite wasteful on an implied odds angle, I think.

UTG raise, Button flatcall, you don't want to repop, you want to stack an UTG range and let him c-bet a 3-way fattened pot, keeping the Button interested. And when you have a 7xx flop, time to take 'em to school.

The rest's range massaging.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looking back, yes, that was a mistake. A call is correct play, for the reasons you already gave.

Although the meat of this post was more on being objective and rational when assigning hand ranges.

[ QUOTE ]
I've posted various hands where it was clear that my line was, objectively speaking, incorrect. But I just 'knew' I was ahead or behind or whatever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course. That's the big problem when you post hands on this forum, especially ones where you are in a predicament whether to call or fold to an all-in preflop. To expect us to come up with a proper hand range when we know nothing about the table or villain is asking an awful lot. You need to do that yourself.

[HerbieGRD]

I agree totally with what registrar and soulman have said here and think that gut feeling and experience work together - the more experience you have the more often your gut feelings are right. One of the things I am doing right now which I know is short term -EV but is hopefully long term +EV is paying to see it when I am really unsure about my decision. I am getting better at identifying tough folds that I should make but my hard-headed self needs to see it (over and over again sometimes) to learn. Making tough folds and big calls will win you a lot of money if you learn to do it properly but I don't think you can really learn unless you are willing to "pay" for some lessons.

[diebitter]

One tip about hand ranges: One really firm read you can get on SOME players is how they play AK. Next time you see someone turn up AK, go back through the hand history and check their pre-flop bet and see if they did anything exceptional. Sometimes you will see a big overbet. Watch them after that for any sort of overbet, and see what they do if A or K doesn't flop and are bet into (and if one does flop too...you need a verification that AK is played for an overbet, after all).

just a tip, as I say.

[1st and 15]

[ QUOTE ]
trusting your gut when the hand and action, as would be posted, seem to suggest an alternative line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reistrar you are right on about this. I believe this trait is something most very good players have; be it MTTers, SNG or ring game players. The trick for me was learning to trust this instinct since it usually surfaces in such counterintuitive situations.

As for being objective about hand ranges this "gut feeling" concept applies as well. Poker is a numbers game, but it is also a game of feel and instinct. I have solid math, but I'm not huge on over-reliance on ranges and equity numbers you get from Pokerstove. Sure it's a very useful prgram but I think it can be dangerous and cause people justify -EV decisions based strictly on assigned ranges, instead of thinking about the hand in a more broad and balanced manner.