Michigan +7 at Ohio State

[iggymcfly]

Figured we needed a thread for this that wasn't populated with ignorant douchebags. Anyway, my analysis might not be worth much after last week, but I really like the Wolverines here. The way I see it, Michigan and Ohio State are about as evenly matched as they could possibly be. When Manningham's been healthy, the Wolverines have been every bit as dominant as the Buckeyes, and it's only the time he missed with injury that's causing people to discount them.

I see about a one-point edge talent wise for the Buckeyes due to the ability of Troy Smith and that's about it. As far as home advantage goes, I think a team like Michigan deals with a hostile environment well enough that it's still only worth three, even in the Horseshoe. Bingo, we've got a fair line of +4, and an actual line of +7. Plenty of value on the Wolverines keeping it close IMO.

[mmbt0ne]

What is the value of Jim Tressel v. Lloyd Carr?

[iggymcfly]

Almost none. They've been coaching the teams all year long, as they've played at an almost even level. Tressel's not Charlie Weis or something where he takes the team to another level in big games by pulling out tons of trick plays. He pretty much uses the same basic gameplan all year long.

Also, Lloyd Carr's vastly underrated. He's 113-36 at Michigan and is two games away from leading the Wolverines to their second national championship during his tenure. This idea that he's somehow an incompetent who lucked into the right situation is just ridiculous IMO.

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
Figured we needed a thread for this that wasn't populated with ignorant douchebags. Anyway, my analysis might not be worth much after last week, but I really like the Wolverines here. The way I see it, Michigan and Ohio State are about as evenly matched as they could possibly be. When Manningham's been healthy, the Wolverines have been every bit as dominant as the Buckeyes, and it's only the time he missed with injury that's causing people to discount them.

I see about a one-point edge talent wise for the Buckeyes due to the ability of Troy Smith and that's about it. As far as home advantage goes, I think a team like Michigan deals with a hostile environment well enough that it's still only worth three, even in the Horseshoe. Bingo, we've got a fair line of +4, and an actual line of +7. Plenty of value on the Wolverines keeping it close IMO.

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No opinion to share on which side to play, but this is a game where line-shopping could not be easier...

If you want to play Michigan, play +7 somewhere, because it is likely not crossing the seven.

If you want to play tOSU, play -6.5 somewhere, because it is likely not hitting six (although, I think that this is more likely than it crossing seven).

The line is probably going to move back and forth between those two numbers all week. If you want MI +7 and it moves to +6.5, just wait. If you want tOSU -6.5 and it moves to -7, just wait. Although you might not end up getting the number you are waiting for, you will probably not end up doing worse...

ML4L

[MyTurn2Raise]

here's my take, it's big on the MIchigan side
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I've been placing small bets on this game throughout the past 3 weeks, slowly building my position. I hate playing rivalry games, but I think it works in my favor when I'm choosing the underdog.

Key to the game: Michigan's defense can shut down the Buckeye offense.

Michigan's front is the best front in college football. They are holding opponents to 1.32 ypc!!!!!! tOSU has had a solid rush attack, averaging 4.6 ypc this season. However, they don't have a Maurice Clarett or Eddie George. Pittman and Wells are merely good. They need the holes and will not force that many misses. Wells also has a tendency to put the ball on the turf. Michigan allows no holes. Last year, the Buckeyes had a real average 118 yards on 35 carries v the Wolverines. Michigan is much healthier and much stronger this year. If anything, Illinois laid out a blue print of what a half-talented, half-speed Michigan D could do verse the Buckeyes offense. Sure, tOSU tuned down the playbook in that game, which they won't do here. But, Illinois is no Michigan. Michigan won't need to do anything out of the norm to completely take away the Buckeyes rush attack. Now, normally this wouldn't matter because tOSU has Troy Smith and all those receivers. Well, this year's Michigan squad has the players to stop even the best passing attacks. Notre Dame put up 21, Michigan State got 13, Vandy had 7, and Indiana got 3 of the major pass-first teams Michigan faced. The Michigan secondary will be free to focus on their pass coverage responsibilities since the defense will not have to adjust to bring more players to stop the run. This is a huge plus. IN addition, Michigan just got a prep workout verse a scrambling qb, Kellen Lewis, and a deep receiving threat offense in Indiana, who does have a huge wideout. Now, IU is no tOSU, but they actually were the perfect half-speed warmup for Troy Smith and his receiving corps.

Second key to the Game: Michigan will establish the run enough to have success scoring.

Michigan has already faced two very good rush defenses in Penn State and Wisconsin and put up 27 and 17 respectively. Ohio State's rush defense falls between the two. It's very good, but not quite Penn State. Michigan's run attack is great. Hart is at full strength, and he rarely fumbles. Capable back-ups have emerged to help carry the load. Henne, Manningham, Arrington, and Breaston have emerged enough that defenses cannot focus solely on stopping Michigan's run. Even though it was a long time ago and tOSU had a bunch of new starters, Texas put up nearly 6 ypc on the Buckeye D. Penn State put over 4 ypc up as well as Illinois. I expect Michigan to be at least 4.75 ypc against the Buckeyes. They are a line that can run straightforward and pull guards and tackles. With Minnesota having a down rush attack and Wisconsin being off the Buckeyes schedule, tOSU hasn't really faced true power rushing attacks. They will this weekend. Plus, Hart has the capability to bust the huge play that I do not think Pittman and Wells have at this point.

Third key: The coaches are conservative midwest guys by nature. They are perfectly happy grinding out a 17-13 win. Unlike Spurrier, they don't look to a bunch of trick plays to add variability and scoring. This ties into the under bet. These guys will just try to beat each other straight up and don't mind even if the game is 10-9 or something.

Now, both teams are really good. I emphasized the main keys, but it's not like Michigan will run roughshot. I expect a 14-13, 17-13, 20-14, 20-17 type game.

The Key for the Buckeyes: There is one thing that scares me about Michigan. Troy Smith v Chad Henne! With Henne, Michigan hopes to have a guy manage the game and not make big mistakes. Any big plays he makes are just a bonus. Troy Smith has been a big play machine and a Wolverine killer in his tenure. He is the heisman leader afterall and is capable of making something out of nothing. I just expect Michigan to hold down Smith much more than in the past since they can devote a guy to spy on Smith in most occasions, and the Michigan secondary is much improved from last year focusing mainly on stopping the pass rathar than the run.

BTW-There is some good value on the Michigan moneyline at this point too. I like the bet to +135 or so.

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[JupiterUWG]

I personally think the best play on this game is the michigan money line...i currently see it at +226 on pinny...this line has very good value i believe

[easternbloc]

all the analysis I need:

MT2R likes michigan this week, MT2R only picks losers this week

thus:

100 units on OSU

[Lennon]

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Tressel's not Charlie Weis or something

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Exactly. He's way way better.
Tressel alone is worth at least 7.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
all the analysis I need:

MT2R likes michigan this week, MT2R only picks losers this week

thus:

100 units on OSU

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nice.

[easternbloc]

I think the horrible sportsbetting week happens to everyone eventually, if you can't joke about it then you're just going to end up crying in a pillow about it.

I like michigan as well in this game, but i'm not much of a CFB analyst