Advice Please?!

[vexel77]

I have the bears at +3, for 2 units, i took it at the start of the week. Its now a pick line, should i try for the two point middle? Or just let it ride?

[Ortho]

I would let it ride.

[agesux]

If you want, try it? You would only be risking the juice for a chance at 4 units?

[playersare]

mathematically it is +EV to middle in the long run due to the historical distribution of winning margins in the NFL relative to the spread of this game. but just because it is a profitable play in of itself, does not necessarily mean it is the MOST profitable play.

whether it is MORE +EV vs. just holding the original Bears +3 alone can only be determined by one's own handicapping analysis of what the "true" line is/should be. to play back the Giants PK (or -1 w/reduced juice as I've seen the market so far today), your determination needs to fall exactly in between the two propositions you are laying simultaneously.

[vexel77]

Yeah ive just decided to go for the middle, i only took the bears at +3 because i thought i was a line that inflated because of their defeat to miami. I have also only been betting sports for a few months and havent had the chance to go for such a play yet, so i thought id take the chance to win 4 units risking only the juice.