Stars $10+1 FT - good push or suicidal?

[LCposter]

Down to 5 players, currently in 4th. Usual top-heavy payouts (roughly 3200/1900/1200/950/750). I just knocked out #6 on the previous hand, then this hand comes up:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t16000 (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP (t449168)
Hero (t257365)
SB (t783470)
BB (t179501)
UTG (t436496)

MP: posts the ante 800
Hero: posts the ante 800
SB: posts the ante 800
BB: posts the ante 800
UTG: posts the ante 800
SB: posts small blind 8000
BB: posts big blind 16000

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds. MP folds. Hero ???

SB has been big stack the entire final table, but has played straightforward and not bullied much with his big stack. If I raise and he pushes, I think he most likely has 66+/AQ+. With my AJ, that means 30 hands I'm flipping with and 42 hands where he's dominating, and pot odds alone almost justify a call (I think I call because of the small percentage chance SB has decided to make a move with any 2).

I have a tough time in these situations, with an awkward stack (around 15 BBs) and a big stack to my left. Is a push the right move here, or is there merit to a standard 3xbb raise and folding to an SB push? If push is right here, how big does my stack need to be for raise/fold to be correct? I also worried about raise/fold hurting my table image - is my stack too small to worry about metagame considerations?

[ASPoker8]

I raise to 50,000 and plan on calling BBs shove and folding to SBs shove.

You have too many BB's to be open-shoving here, I believe

[betgo]

I push this and a lot worse. BB has 11xBB and SB has less. If you make a raise less than a push, you need to call any reraise and get the money in on most flops. Making less than a push just sets up a stop and go.

[ASPoker8]

Betgo, SB has ~49 BB's.

[betgo]

Oh sorry, misread. Push still is OK. OP's hand is strong enough for it. My style would be to push here. If you standard raise, I would call a reraise from either player. AJs is at worst about 2-1 except against AA. By the time you raise, you have pot odds, and SB could be restealing or value reraising a coin flip. AJs is pretty strong for a button raise.

[jacksinthehole]

If your playing to win you gotta push. If you raise/fold you will often find yourself pushing with a worse hand in the near future with fewer chips to double up on. You still have enough chips to hurt SB so i think his range would tighten up to a push, since it seems hes playing tight. Now you hafe to consider BB who has a small stack. Often a push like this will spur a call by a weaker range of hands, maybe 66+/K10+. A call by a weaker Ace would be great here! I think if you dont push here you are accepting a 750-950 payday. Getting aggresive here is your chance at a good payday. Goodluck. Im a new poster so feel free to tear my opinon apart!

[ASPoker8]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh sorry, misread. Push still is OK. OP's hand is strong enough for it. My style would be to push here. If you standard raise, I would call a reraise from either player. AJs is at worst about 2-1 except against AA. By the time you raise, you have pot odds, and SB could be restealing or value reraising a coin flip. AJs is pretty strong for a button raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this post.

My style is a little different and I will comfortably fold to a SB shove (after raising 3 BB's). I personally have no problem avoiding an allin against someone who can eliminate you (SB) and continuing forth with a manageable 200,000+ stack.


So we've come up with:

a) Shove - This is decent

b) Raise 3X w/ intention of calling BB shove and folding to SB shove.

c) Raise 3X w/ intention of calling any shove.

I think a/b are the best possible plays, completely depending on your style and what type of risk you are willing to take at this junction of the tournament.

[betgo]

I think raise folding is weak/tight. It would be OK if you raised with a weaker hand or from earlier position.

I would probably just open push, but I am not sure which is better, open pushing or raise/calling. Like I said just raising lets the BB stop and go you.

[LCposter]

Welcome to the forum! Keep posting!

I agree, payouts were a big reason for my push. There isn't that much difference from 5th to 3rd, the main money is in the top 2. With 3 stacks over 400k, I thought I had to be willing to race or even get money in as a slight dog to have a good shot at top 2. But whenever I'm lucky enough to make an FT, I always seem to go out 4-8, so maybe I'm too aggressive in my push/resteal strategy and a little more patience would give me a better shot at a top 2 finish. In any case, glad to see this situation is close enough that people think it could go either way.

[LCposter]

Good summary, ASPoker8. With a hand like AJ, which would rather steal the blinds than see a flop or showdown, option A has to be better than option C because of greater fold equity. So any non-all-in raise can only be good if you plan to fold to a re-raise.

I also agree that if SB folds and BB pushes, it's a call. Pot odds are good, I still have 100k if I lose, and we knock out another player if I win. For the people advocating a push, when you would raise/fold? 20 BBs?