100/200: big call down

[aba20]

I know this is very read dependant but hopefully it will spark some discussion. Villian is gus hansen and is very capable of running a bluff. My image is tight solid. Comments welcome on all streets. I will answer any read questions as they come up.

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $100/$200
3 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $24139
SB: $8594
BB: $21921

Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $700</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($1500, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $1500</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($4500, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $4500</font>, Hero calls.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($13500, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $13500</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: $40500

[CaptDEEbo]

what do you think gus is doing this with?? total air..missed draw?? it does seem to me like he really wants you to fold throughout the hand...i hope this call worked out bc it would be total ownage...

[Big Dave D]

By the time you get to the river his hand has defined itself into 3 states - he is bluffing; he *thinks* he is bluffing but has the best hand, i.e. he has just caught a K; he has a very strong hand and having a read on you, or knowing what you think of him, he has decided you will pay off the max.I suspect that if you cut these probabilites up and slice them, then this is probably a river call, although AA would be *much* better if just to remove the paired K wildcard.

However, when he bets the turn you don't know he is going to define his hand so strongly on the river. He could just have a run of the mill beating you kind of hand at this point and you can't really know this. So I think that calling the turn is a big mistake.

gl

dd

[swope]

please tell me he had a set or a straight, and wasnt just spazzing out cuz he missed his flush draw...

[Requin]

I don't know if its really spazzing out, doesn't aba protect a set on the turn by raising?

[piiop]

Were you calling any size river bet?

[CrushinFelt]

I don't really see how this call down can be made unless you think he is on a pure flush draw. Unless you can tell me what the read was I'm going to assume this was dumb luck [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] (assuming you won). Does he lead with flush draws and check raise here with a better hand?

[BluffTHIS!]

aba,

I really can't believe you would even call on that flop with only an overpair and no draws, despite having position, and despite the high probability he is semi-bluffing with a draw himself. You start a small pot rolling down hill like a snowball until it gets huge. I realize that very sh'd and HU you can get nickle and dimed to death by folding to flop steals by laggier opponents, but still your hand isn't a good one for that flop.

And the key question is what he puts you on, and it's probably just what you had, an overpair, with or without a draw. By the time the river got there he's betting any scraggly 2 pair or better and probably checking just a K. And like Dave said, it would be far better to have AA here to remove the K as a card that killed your QQ.

Your post is just an image ploy for your opponents who might be lurking here isn't it, to get them to keep betting into you when you have a set?

[theBruiser500]

even if you are really sure he's bluffing i think it's a flop fold given your hand. once you make that read and decide to call it's hard for the turn and river to come much better than they did so it's consistent for you to continue with the calldown and there is a better than 2:1 chance you're ahead on river, much better IMO. just think though if a 468957 or a diamond comes whether he has it or not he probably wins the pot. plus there is def. a chance he is ahead already

[gergery]

There is a fine line between genius and madness, but i don't know which side this falls on.

I'd have folded on the flop usually because if he doesn't have you beat then he's usually drawing very live. I'd like the call better if you had chances to improve bluffing chances like with the dry Ad. basically you have reverse implied odds, well you do vs sane opponents anyway.

If you are going all on the flop, then I think you probably call on that turn card too, since Gus will be very likely to keep firing with whatever he bet the flop with since its such a blank card.

His bet amount on the river is interesting. The draws missed, so I think if he has something marginal like 73xx, or a rivered K7xx that he can showdown then he goes for a check-call. so his bet feels like a monster hoping you have enough to pay off with or air. And given that diamonds and wraps and pair+gutshots missed I think he has air there enough to call. Tho that will take balls of high density steel. I think it largely depends on what you think he'd do with something like medium two pair.

But the whole thing is a slippery slope starting with the flop, as its hard to win a big pot here without BOTH catching the right turn/river cards AND making a very tough calls. and its easy to lose a big one.

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is gus hansen and is very capable of running a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

btw, I loved this line. And in other news, the Pope is Catholic...

-g