using a PT statistic-read

[JojoDiego]

I had data-mined the following approximate stats on the Villain at 2/4:

30/20/9, 75 hands

I hadn't actually seen him play; I'd just sat down on his immediate left.

Hero is in CO: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

4 folds
Villain raises
Hero reraises
3 folds
Villain caps
Hero calls

I figure he's a wild man from his stats and reraise here for value thinking I'm very likely way ahead of his range. I also don't mind isolating him and hopefully taking control of the hand. I call the cap w/out much thought because I'm already thinking, "wild man."

** Dealing the flop (9.5 SB): A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villain bets

Now what? His PF cap now looks more scary, but I also see his huge post-flop aggro number. If I raise the flop, what do I do to a reraise? If I raise and he calls, what's my plan for the turn? What about just calling this flop to let him keep firing? What about calling down? (That's the WA/WB line, right?) What about a fold?

[DreamShatterer]

Firstly, I think it's important to note the tiny sample size you have on villain. His stats may mean a number of things, and treating villain as a "wild man" is ill-advised. I can recall periods where I've ran at like 40/25/3 for ~50 hands, which is totally misleading and not at all representative of my play style.

On to the hand, it seems like a standard WA/WB line to me. This will encourage villain to bet out his underpairs and minimize losses vs. an A. Below are some quick thoughts on his possible holdings, which also suggests a call down line.

Hands you're behind
AA - 2 combos
AK - 6 combos
AQ - 4 combos
AJ - 8 combos
KK- 3 combos
QQ - 2 combos
TOTAL - 25 combos

Hands you're ahead
JJ - 6 combos
TT - 6 combos
99 - 6 combos
88 - 6 combos
TOTAL - 24 combos

[GMMigge]

Actually, even if 75 hands is not a enormous sample size, 20% PFR and a postflop aggression of 9 is still quite aggressive.

That said, I don't think the sample size matter that much anyway, I believe this is a simple call-down, and bet if checked to. Let him do the betting when he is behind, and you lose the minimum when he does have an ace.

The only problem with these WA/WB-lines is when they check to you on later streets, like on the river. Then you have to bet to make him pay to show down his JJ, but what to do when you are checkraised? Perhaps one could fold, but it still sucks. Luckily that doesn't happen very often, they ususally just bet it all the way or perhaps check/call the river [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DreamShatterer]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, even if 75 hands is not a enormous sample size, 20% PFR and a postflop aggression of 9 is still quite aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, villain is undoubtedly aggressive. Though, I think it's a mistake to consider him wild or maniacal, based on such a small sample.

[GMMigge]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Actually, even if 75 hands is not a enormous sample size, 20% PFR and a postflop aggression of 9 is still quite aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, villain is undoubtedly aggressive. Though, I think it's a mistake to consider him wild or maniacal, based on such a small sample.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aha, well actually I wrote that without reading your post, so it was really not a reply to you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DreamShatterer]

[ QUOTE ]

Aha, well actually I wrote that without reading your post, so it was really not a reply to you

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, my mistake [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[naMruM]

WA/WB. If we think he might be tricky and aware of WA/WB, we check behind if he checks the river. If we want to gambool, we lead out on the river but have to fold if raised.