Miami vs. Maryland...

[nickey009]

I'm looking for thoughts here....I think there are two schools.

1) One of our players just got shot twice in the head execution style...We need to win this one for him and get into a major bowl game!

2) I'll front like I can play but my mind is really not on the game.

3) People who bet on this game solely because it involves one of the players getting shot are going straight to hell. (me)

[MyTurn2Raise]

there are weird, weird, and weirder things going down at the "U." I'm staying away from all of there games.

Not only for what is publicly known. Watching the G Tech game reminded me of the player throwing the game in Blue Chips. (watch Leggett play that 3rd quarter!!!!!!!!)

I'm staying far, far away from the mess over there.

[MicroBob]

I'm leaning towards taking MD. Miami is just one mess after another....and MD is looking decent of late.

[silentbob]

I had grabbed MD at -2.5 before the tragedy. Given the unpredictability, maybe I'm better off playing for the middle now?

[miami32]

I am a md fan. I went to UMD. I have been to many UMD football games. I think I know both teams very well. Considering all the facts, I STRONGLY ADVISE staying away from this game. It is so up in the air it's ridiculous. Talent wise Miami blows away UMD. UMD has been on a run since VA playing up to ability. MD is talented, but they can't compete with UM. I'd stay away.

[NajdorfDefense]

Miami will be missing 4 starters, total. I'd lean Terps if I was betting.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
I had grabbed MD at -2.5 before the tragedy. Given the unpredictability, maybe I'm better off playing for the middle now?

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd be against it. This is similar to hedging. While the risk is high, you are clearly on the +ev side now. Let it ride.

[SunOfBeach]

I was thinking of middling this, too.

I'm at -2.5 -109 (b/c I followed MyTurn and Iggy by rote for about 30 bets on Sunday, as I often do), and we can get +3.5 - 110 all over...

Pretending they were both -110 to make the math easier, that's

EV = 200x - 10(1-x) where x = % hits exactly 3.

For EV = 0, that's x=1/21 ~ 4.76%

So, the question for me is basically this: "How often does a 2.5-3.5 point favorite in an NCAAF game with a total of 36-38 win by exactly 3"?

My guess is that it's WAYYY more than 4.76%, but I have absolutely no idea what I'm talking about, of course.

Does anyone have a historical db with this #? Every Wonger has it for NFL, but anyone with it for NCAAF?

Of course, this has to be balanced against whatever +EV there is by being on a 3.5 fave at 2.5.... but I'm not comfortable with the amount of uncertainty on this game due to the tragedy, etc.... and hence I'm not sure that the usual EV in this situation is there.

Anyone with the key #?

[playersare]

the 3 pushes on the spread about 10% of the time in the NFL, though it's definitely lower in college (but probably still the most frequent push number overall). if you go by pinnacle's pulldown menus, they usually charge between 14-18c to buy both on and off the 3 in NCAAF. this means they've determined the push percentage to be slightly LESS than 7-9% on average depending on the game - simply because they want to ensure a mathematical profit on every half point. even so, the actual expectation should undoubtedly be above the 4.76% your lines require to be +EV to middle.

[SunOfBeach]

Thankyou for this... I don't know why I didn't think of just inferring it from Pinny's lines. I'd think it's on the higher end of likelihood given the low total, so ~ 8-9% seems reasonable, I guess.