Postponing a raise to the turn

[Heron]

In this hand I tried to apply the concept described in the chapter "2 Overpair Hands" of SSHE.

In short they recommend to postpone raising with the best hand to the turn when three criteria are met:

1. raising is unlikely to induce a fold
2. the equity edge is small
3. the equity will change dramatically on the turn

If the equity changes the wrong way the raising will be cancelled, of course.

This is illustrated with the two examples 9c 7c 3s (board) and the holdings Ah Ac and Th Td

I find the concept quite simple. It is difficult to recognize the situation to apply it, though. I finally came to the conclusion that top pair top kicker could sometimes be treated like this.

Was I right in trying it here?

Reads:
CO is a weird player who often raises and bets with nothing at all.
SB seemed solid pre flop and passive so far.

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.05/$0.1
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 5 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5SB, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls, 2 folds.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4BB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7BB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Results:
Final pot: 10BB

[davelin]

Raise that flop up. Condition 1 and 2 don't apply here.

[nach0king]

I just re-read that chapter today, strangely enough. Bar pocket pairs this probably is probably as decent an example as you'll get at the micro level, although of course with AA and TT on the button you'd have raised preflop, thinning the field even more.

Bear in mind I'm a bit of a newbie myself and I also play the nanos, but it seems to me that you misapplied it by limping along after the equity changed *for the worse*. An overcard appeared with someone who by your admission is fairly solid still in play; even if CO is utterly unpredictable it would be foolhardy to write off SB's chances of having you beaten here.

You have no straight possibility, 5 outs and are quite possibly behind on the turn in a very small pot. It seems to me that if the turn is a *debatable* call, the river is a fold in a pot this small.

Were the pot larger, the turn would be a call or possibly even a raise/fold to get SB out/fold to his check-raise (as applicable), but the pot is large so I don't see the point.

[Shillx]

Well why didn't you raise the turn? The king shouldn't change anything unless he has KT. But whatever I would raise the flop.

[knockonwood]

SSH holdem 'wait for the turn to raise' applies when your hand is vulnerable on the flop and a blank hits the turn. With the board all low cards and undrawy on the flop, this is a good spot to exploit your edge as soon as possible.

[nach0king]

Is it really an undraw card at the nanos? It's an overcard and with only one bet to see the turn on a fairly crap flop, a lot of people with Kx may opt to call for one bet.

[knockonwood]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it really an undraw card at the nanos? It's an overcard and with only one bet to see the turn on a fairly crap flop, a lot of people with Kx may opt to call for one bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you do need to pay more attention when the blinds see the flop cheaply and there are small cards out, but this is relatively very undrawy.

[Befolder]

I'm usually not numbers guy, but here is why we raise the flop in your hand one example of AT.

1. We very likely have the best hand.
2. The bettor is immediately to your right, thus allowing you to face the field with two bets in what will be an 8sb pot after you raise. So, the best draw on this board is likely overcards, which we'll give 4.5 of the the six total outs. 4.5 outs has about an 18% chance to improve by the river.

You are charging them 2 bets in an 8 bet pot. Yes, they may call, but even if they do, you have forced them into a -EV play, thus earning you the $$$ and Sklansky bucks as well. If one person calls, the pot is 10sb, even then overcards are making a mistake by calling still. 2/10= 20% pot odds. Making their hand 18%. Now the third caller would be correct with overs to call, we probably don't see that happening, the first two are still mistaken.

3. I got so caught up in two, that I can't start to figure out three.

Summary, the fact that they might not fold, makes no difference if you can make them make mistakes. In the end (long term), you come out the winner.

Edit: Apparently, this was my Mephisto post. 666 posts.

[00Snitch]

hate it.

- pot is not massive, you have the chance to protect.
- you have position (relative to raiser and absolute)
- the turn is not as likely to kill your hand because this board is not co-ordinated

raise the flop. call down from the turn if he donks again, otherwise bet the turn then check behind on the river.

[Heron]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise that flop up. Condition 1 and 2 don't apply here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was in doubt about condition 1 but I dont understand why condition 2 doesn't apply here. Do you think my equity edge is too big?

[ QUOTE ]
Well why didn't you raise the turn? The king shouldn't change anything unless he has KT. But whatever I would raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I planned to raise only when the turn comes T or lower and I have 2 opponents here. It's not only "him".

[ QUOTE ]
Bear in mind I'm a bit of a newbie myself and I also play the nanos, but it seems to me that you misapplied it by limping along after the equity changed *for the worse*.

[/ QUOTE ]

I still think that calling the turn was OK. I can't give in to only one overcard but I thought about folding when the second came on the river.


knockonwood and Befolder: I think you're probably right. In doubt raising is preferable to the danger of making a big mistake by misapplying the concept in question.

Can anyone construct an example (without overpairs, of course) for this concept? That could help me and others a lot.