Dancing with the Stars - bet for tonight 11/8

[llabb]

Well, we've had a great run on this show, +25 units so far! A perfect 6-0 on eliminations, plus the Male to win prop that was posted at the start of the season being an easy winner.

Down to the final 3 now, who are the exact 3 that I originally thought had the best chances of winning, although I didn't expect to nail the final trio so exactly. As you might have expected from last week's write-up, I think Mario and Emmitt have better chances than Joey, and I didn't see anything from last night's show or online to change my mind. The judges pulled another pansy move, and scored them all the same, so the only thing that will matter is the fanbases and voting. Re-posting some of the relevant items from last week:

"Monique and Joey should be the bottom 2, as they have both been at the bottom already, and Mario and Emmitt are clearly at the top, never having been in the bottom 2."

The "season started with a Mario vs. Joey feel, since they were the top 2 dancers at the start of the season." But "Mario has retained the title of favorite, and Emmitt has come on strong with the judges and popularity," while "Joey has slipped some."

On top of my own thoughts, most online pundits/bloggers/articles project Joey to go home. An informal survey of forums also shows Joey with the least votes and with most fans thinking he will go home. So just like with Jerry and Monique leaving in the last couple weeks, I feel comfortable that Joey will be eliminated.

The odds are already high on him to leave, though. I saw it start around -500 on Pinny, and after I took it, it was in the mid-500's. Probably opened that high, although it could have been bid up, I'm not sure.

I'm playing Joey to win a unit. Would take more, but no need to risk most of my winnings on the show just to win a couple extra units, since I'm 7-0 overall and might slip up or have variance hit eventually. Still think it's a decent wager at these levels, and okay a little higher, but not sure how high it might climb, since it started off with higher odds than the previous couple weeks. That's probably because there are so few contestants left, and it would be a pretty big upset for Joey to stay, considering that Mario and Emmitt both have much bigger fanbases than him.

Position:
Win 1 unit on Joey leaving, lose 5 units otherwise.

[grafyx]

At bodog, they offer to win DS3

Emmit 2/3 odds. Risk 75 to win 50 max.

Mario 2/5 odds. Risk 125 to win 50 max.

So, you can risk 200 to win 50 that joey is eliminated - correct? Also, if he's not eliminated you still have a chance to win.

I don't watch the show, but besides the lower maximum this is a better wager - correct?

[centris]

[ QUOTE ]
At bodog, they offer to win DS3

Emmit 2/3 odds. Risk 75 to win 50 max.

Mario 2/5 odds. Risk 125 to win 50 max.

So, you can risk 200 to win 50 that joey is eliminated - correct? Also, if he's not eliminated you still have a chance to win.

I don't watch the show, but besides the lower maximum this is a better wager - correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

No this is to win the whole show. Both of them cannot win the show. So if Emmit wins you get 50-125=-75 and if Mario wins you get 50-75=-25. Bad news either way.

[grafyx]

ahhh...

[thing85]

I was about to take it, but it's up to -670 which I don't really feel comfortable with.

[igetbadbeat]

It's like -1400 now.

Can we still call in to vote for contestants?

[igetbadbeat]

Sweet, maxed out on Joey at -750. Didn't thinkit had that much value, but I was on massive poker tilt.

[bigalt]

v. nice