NBA Overlays - 11/8

rjp · #1 11-08-2006, 09:08 AM

YTD: 5-2-0 (+2.21 units; ROI: 31.57%)

Milwaukee Bucks -125

Play so far this season shows Houston and Milwaukee would be an even matchup on a neutral court.

I figure Milwaukee’s odds of winning this game are ~60% after you throw in home court advantage, a motivational edge for Milwaukee (they were blown out by 25 in Chicago in their most recent game), and Houston playing their 4th game in 5 days on a back-to-back.

Milwaukee at this price should provide a good return over the long haul.

vexel77 · #2 11-08-2006, 09:25 AM

where did you get this? I cant find money lines for NBA on Bodog or Bet365.

rjp · #3 11-08-2006, 09:56 AM

Olympic. It's also available at Pinnacle.

rjp · #4 11-08-2006, 09:56 AM

New York Knicks +10.5 (-110)

Even if you figure the Knicks never win this game then there is a positive expectation to be had with the Knicks.

The Knicks are likely one of those bad teams that will, from time to time, be blown out of the water, but more often than not they cover this number.

Queensgrad · #5 11-08-2006, 10:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
New York Knicks +10.5 (-110)

The Knicks are likely one of those bad teams that will, from time to time, be blown out of the water, but more often than not they cover this number.

[/ QUOTE ]

Overall I agree with you, but in light of missing Francis? I think that really hurts their chance to hang in the game at all.

rjp · #6 11-08-2006, 10:38 AM

Francis likely won't play tonight, but at +10.5 -110 it doesn't matter.

The Knicks can't lose 110% of the time, can they?

I wouldn't be shocked to see Denver crush the Knicks tonight, as it's an event I know will happen. More often than not, however, the Knicks cover this number.

ImNew · #7 11-08-2006, 11:53 AM

One question to OP, how do you justify the saying "this price should provide a good return over the long haul"?

I see this line in almost every post made by you, but I don't really get the reasoning behind (it seems that you assign a % of winning for your pick in a game). Not saying that I disagree with your picks, rather I'm just curious on how you derive a "should" there.

rjp · #8 11-08-2006, 11:57 AM

I'm just saying I figure to have a positive expectation at the given price. Basically a disclaimer that it's possible I missed something, although I feel I've taken everything into account.

Chickenfly69 · #9 11-08-2006, 02:54 PM

The Knicks did upset Denver last year, it might happen again