Wild Family pot

TomTom · #1 11-04-2006, 04:13 PM

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Flop: (12 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, MP3 caps, Hero...

Top 2 pair hits a wall of opposition on a coordinated board. I'm easily against sets or already made straights.

Are my 4 outs to a boat enough to keep peeling? I think I'm better then even money at 5:1 odds putting in 1/5 of the bets.

Even if the turn gets capped I'm drawing live and against 5 players I have proper odds, correct?

BigBadBabar · #2 11-04-2006, 04:16 PM

call the flop cap and see what the turn brings. this is an overpair or aj or a flush draw or something-9 more than it is that you're beat already.

bbb

DrModern · #3 11-04-2006, 04:29 PM

I think MP3's play looks like a flopped straight, actually. Still, his range is wider than just that, I call and reevaluate on the turn.

BTW, this isn't a family pot, 3 people folded PF.

Brain · #4 11-04-2006, 04:48 PM

MP3 call/caps the flop. This would scream major strength to me. Call the cap and hope for a boat. I think you'll have odds to call the turn for one, but fold for two (I'm playing and not calculating right now).

Deviance · #5 11-04-2006, 05:19 PM

I think a more interesting question is whether you should have raised the flop to being with; I contend that you should not have. You have top two pair, but it is vulnerable. Any diamond puts three to a flush, a 9, Q, or 7 completes straight draws, and an overcard can complete a larger two pair. If BB has an overpair, then an 8 counterfeits you.

Since your edge will vary wildly depending on what card falls on the turn, I believe the best course of action is to wait until then before deciding whether to raise or not.

Shillx · #6 11-04-2006, 05:32 PM

One to the nuts. Three to the almost almost nuts. Let's see a turn baby.

TomTom · #7 11-04-2006, 06:58 PM

The turn:

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Flop: (12 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, MP3 caps, Hero calls, Button calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (16 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button raises, BB 3-bets, UTG calls $0.30 (All-In), MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

I didn't see this as a bad card for me, as I'm suspecting the straight is already out there... this just gives more people a chance to catch it, giving me better implied odds for my miracle river card. OK, getting another J would have made me happier, but another diamond would kill the action.

No one is going anywhere, I'm still getting 5:1+ on a 1 in 5.

BigBadBabar · #8 11-04-2006, 07:00 PM

i fold the turn when it's 3bet back to me, easily. not sure what the 1 in 5 is coming from--we only have 4 outs (same outs as a gutshot) which needs 10:1 right?

bbb

DrModern · #9 11-04-2006, 07:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The turn:

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Flop: (12 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, MP3 caps, Hero calls, Button calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (16 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button raises, BB 3-bets, UTG calls $0.30 (All-In), MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

I didn't see this as a bad card for me, as I'm suspecting the straight is already out there... this just gives more people a chance to catch it, giving me better implied odds for my miracle river card. OK, getting another J would have made me happier, but another diamond would kill the action.

No one is going anywhere, I'm still getting 5:1+ on a 1 in 5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where the hell did you get these numbers? Your draw does not come in 1/5 times, it comes in 4/46 times. You have some possible chop outs, too. The 1st call is O.K., but when it get 3-bet back to you you have an easy fold.

TomTom · #10 11-04-2006, 07:12 PM

Damn.... need better glasses. On the turn it's 5:1, river alone is 10.5:1. (Yeah, I have to look up odds for these things, my auto pilot doesn't remember numbers anymore).

OK, no odds, fold it there and move on. Thank you, question answered.

Or is it, 3 bets to me, that makes about 30 BB in the pot. Hrmmmm...