arbing EV situation help

Little_Luck · #1 11-04-2006, 12:41 PM

I was doing an arb last night and found the following 4 lines

A- +7 (-105), -6.5 (-105)

B- +3 (-105), -2.5 (-105)

C- +1 (-105), pk (-105)

D- +5 (-105), -5 (+106)

I couldn't quite decide which one of these was the best EV candidate. All were college games and I don't want the team names to throw off anyone's opinion of which one was best. I am guessing a 7 or 3 line should be worth at least 10 points and I was undecided what value to place on the 1/pk line, I was thinking that was worth 10 too.

What's my play? (Thank you to anyone who can help)

PropPlayer · #2 11-04-2006, 12:49 PM

It is very likely B
The +3/-2.5 is a play 100% of the time @ -105 IMO.

B00T · #3 11-04-2006, 03:13 PM

Are these bets for full games? if so the +1/pk is awful seeing as the game wont end in a tie.

Edit: not extremely awful if the other team wins by 1, but would be much better if it was a half bet.

Little_Luck · #4 11-04-2006, 04:13 PM

These are all full games.

PropPlayer · #5 11-04-2006, 04:18 PM

In order: B, A, D, C
Don't even bother with C.

silentbob · #6 11-05-2006, 09:27 AM

I can't seem to find the posts that discuss how much the "3" is worth. Trying to figure out if I should take the Rams -2.5 at -110 or -3 at +115.

beetman · #7 11-05-2006, 09:41 AM

-3 +115 is slightly better. In the NFL, -2.5 -110 and -3 +112 or +113 are pretty equivalent.

Lori · #8 11-05-2006, 09:54 AM

I would prefer D as you can have a much bigger bet.

Edit: That's my instinct without doing any RoR math.

Lori

Little_Luck · #9 11-05-2006, 11:33 AM

So going off beetman's numbers, B is worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 percent (+22 gained minus -10 juice paid = +12 / 2 = 6 pct) and therefore probably much better than D. D was worth 0.5 pct.

I took D because I firgured I had about 5 minutes to get my bet in and I couldn't decide. I wanted to see for next time this situation may come up.

FWIW- Bets A,B, and C did not hit the post. Although the B had a chance to hit post, it was the Texas AM v OK game ended up ending by 1.

Lori · #10 11-05-2006, 11:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So going off beetman's numbers, B is worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 percent (+22 gained minus -10 juice paid = +12 / 2 = 6 pct) and therefore probably much better than D. D was worth 0.5 pct.

I took D because I firgured I had about 5 minutes to get my bet in and I couldn't decide. I wanted to see for next time this situation may come up.

FWIW- Bets A,B, and C did not hit the post. Although the B had a chance to hit post, it was the Texas AM v OK game ended up ending by 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would certainly not dispute that D is the third best of the options if your bet size is the same. However, with a 6% edge (just using your number) you can probably not afford to bet much more than 3% of your bankroll on either side (and that sounds big to me), whereas with D, you could (in theory, too many arbs mess up to actually do this) bet your entire roll.

You'd have 1/12th of the edge, but bet 16 times as much money.

Lori