Play later stages of satellite, how often is this AA/KK?

[Black Aces 518]

Poker Stars $5r satellite to the Sunday $500+30. Started with 667, down to 115, with 24 receiving seats, and 25th getting $512 in cash. I'm in 14th chip position with $47K, blinds 400/800. I get QQ UTG+1 and make it 2400.

Folds to button, who shoves for $52K. Blinds fold.

I have been having a debate with some of my friends on what hero should do and how often this is AA or KK. One group feels this is an instacall, as the likely hands are AK-AT, JJ-77. The other thinks it's an easy fold given Hero's comfortable position, and the likely hands are AA-KK or AK. Thoughts, proposed action?

[seke2]

I think it's AK fairly often. KK wouldn't surprise me. AA would. I mean, Button is risking his tournament here, basically, and he's just as comfortable as you are, chip-wise. Is he really going to do this with a non-premium hand?

I can find a fold here. I think Hero will find better spots later if he's patient, and he has plenty of chips.

Proposed action: cry that you're about to fold the best hand, then fold.

[Scary_Tiger]

I don't think this is ever AQ-AT. AA just seems ludicrous, but maybe that's his thought? Whatever.

I'd put the range at AKs, AKo, KK-77. So it's a call.

I expect to see AKs, AKo, JJ, TT the most though.

[seke2]

Let's say Hero is a 60% favorite against his most likely range...I'd include KK in that. If Hero folds here, and is in about 15th place with 115 to go and top 25 getting prizes, what are his chances of getting a prize?

I'm folding not because I think I'm an underdog to Villain's range, but because I think is a murky, probably but not defintely +EV spot, and Hero has enough chips left to find some severly +EV spots at later times. It's more of the value of retaining the chips you have now rather than risking them.

And does doubling up here drastically increase Hero's chance of getting a prize over folding and remaining on a very playable M of like 30? I don't do a lot of sats, so I have trouble figuring out the value of chips late in these things.

[Black Aces 518]

seke2-

Would the value of accumulation make this a call for you in a regular tournament?

I was torn on how safe I was. We still had 3/4 of the current field to knock out, but on the other hand, I'm in better shape than most everyone else. If this was with, say, 30 players left, I fold for sure.

I do think that it is going to be AQ or AJ sometimes, as they don't want to fold, don't want to just call, and don't want to worry about getting 4 bet. I think this bet is implying "I just want to win this right now."

[Black Aces 518]

[ QUOTE ]
I expect to see AKs, AKo, JJ, TT the most though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I thought those were the 4 most likely hands as well.

[bmxreed36]

I've played a couple of these rebuys and if I remember right, the average stack when it gets to the money (seat) is around t100,000 so your position here is good but far from a lock. Although the button's push is a move I'll make sometimes with aces or kings with some effectiveness (early position raise meaning a probable big hand, I push big looking like weakness or a steal and get called quite often), most players won't do this with AA or KK. You just have to include 99-JJ and AQ, AK in his range and probably others. Knowing this, I call pretty quickly. Winning a pot this big almost guarantees you a seat right there and I almost never feel bad if I do go out with QQ.

[seke2]

Reg tournament, yes.

I'm debating whether the nature of this being a satallite changes the math adequately. I think it's close enough that it does.