12 buyin downswing in last 5000 hands

Big Bend · #1 11-03-2006, 06:43 PM

Ok I'm running bad.. what I want to know is can these kinds of swings be expected in NL ring? I'm playing $100 buyin 6-max, am adequately bankrolled, and have been a winning player the last 50K hands. But this variance stuff can sure suck at times..

Anyway, do other winning NL ring players also experience 10+ buyin downslides from time to time? I remember thinking how a 250+ BB slide was pretty horrific playing 6-max limit, till I experienced a few of them and eventually recovered, and learned not to sweat the variance there.. but I'm still new to NL ring and was just wondering what kind of swings I can expect here due to variance.

thx.. BB

Black winter day · #2 11-03-2006, 06:45 PM

Anything above 10 buy-ins at NL100 is pretty bad.
You have to post some hands...
How much of those buy-ins were tilted away?

kslghost · #3 11-03-2006, 07:18 PM

12 buyins is not that unusual, though it does indicate some leaks.

DanJ. · #4 11-03-2006, 07:39 PM

it happens, ive had multiple days at 1/2 where i run at -$1/hand.

ymu · #5 11-03-2006, 07:40 PM

Go through your hands for a large sample before the downswing and those after. 5000 is a pretty small sample, and 50k total isn't huge, but you might get some clues.

How do your stats compare? VPIP, PFR, AF, c-bet, W$WSF, WTSD, W$SD etc etc. How do position stats compare before/after? Order your sessions by amount won/lost and see if there's any kind of trend in your stats, length of session, etc etc.

Look at a graph of running total over all the hands you have. How do the recent biggest losses compare to the biggest wins? Are you losing more or winning fewer big pots? Winning more or fewer small pots?

Are your opponents getting used to your style? Are the guys you took money off before now taking money off you? Do you switch gears enough?

It's really easy to just feel worthless when something like this happens and lose all confidence in your game. It could be variance, there may be some things you can fix. Finding some leaks should help you focus again.

Good luck.

Chomp · #6 11-03-2006, 08:36 PM

Exact same thing happened to me after 50,000 hands at 100NL.

The worst part for me: it turns a reasonable PTBB/100 figure into a festering pile of donkey shine before your very eyes and in double quick time.

I went from thinking that my 3.7ptbb/100 over 50,000 hands was a solid number I could work on as I tried to learn the game to thinking, a short week later, that I didn't even understand the rules of poker never mind the strategy of poker.

So, I dropped down before busto (I'd reached 0.4 PTBB/100!) and picked up where I'd left off at 25NL (9PTBB/100/25,000 hands). After regaining my footing there, I moved back up to 50NL, where I am today and will stay till I feel totally on top of the game again (which should be any day now).

Today, I finished at 17PTBB/100 over 2,000 hands, so that's something to build on for tomorrow. I feel really confortable again at the table and have learnt an awful lot by dropping down. I feel my next shot at 100NL will be much more sustainable as a result.

Basically what I am saying is that dropping down works for a whole bunch of reasons, so I recommend that strongly.

Big Bend · #7 11-03-2006, 10:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anything above 10 buy-ins at NL100 is pretty bad.
You have to post some hands...
How much of those buy-ins were tilted away?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, I'm sure a few were tilt related.. But my goodness there were a ton of 2 and 3 outers, runner runners, crap like that.

But check out this hand

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $41.60
UTG+1: $101.20
Hero: $208.85
Button: $90.10
SB: $73.25
BB: $33.60

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.5, Button raises to $6, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($13.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $8, Hero raises to $22, Button raises all-in $84.1, Hero calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($181.7, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $181.7)

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($181.7, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $181.7)

Results:
Final pot: $181.7

Villian had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Wasn't that a good all in call, or should I have check raised all in to try and generate some folding equity?

thanks for feedback... and yes I probably do need to drop down for awhile till things stabalize.

BB

nextgenneo · #8 11-03-2006, 10:14 PM

I feel your pain, got the same post almost as you. not quite as brutal though. I think the hand is standard, unlucky

faded · #9 11-03-2006, 10:15 PM

i'd lead the flop and hoped to be raised so i could get it all in asap on that flop.

Twen · #10 11-03-2006, 10:26 PM

More ofter than not, those minraises pf in NL100 are AA/KK. If the guy is willing to go all-in, you can be 95% sure he's got the goods. Nothing wrong with that hand, but it is a high variance 50/50 situation.