ATL-5 @ Detroit

[miami32]

After last weeks St. Louis game inspired me to become a better handicapper so here is my first effort.

Analysis:

Atl this year is 2-1 on the road with their only loss coming against NO when they were overly hyped for their first home game in a year.

Det has nothing to play for except pride. They are 1-6. While they aren't going to pack it in, they certainly aren't going to give their best effort either.

Det. top 2 d lineman are out with Rogers on suspension and Cody with a dislocated toe. Not to mention their sack leader Hall is questionable. Two weeks ago with both players out the Jets lit them up running the ball. I think it's safe to say the Vick and Dunn combo is much more talented then the Jets running attack.

-Also consider Detroit's best offensive player is Roy Williams while Atlanta's best defensive player is Deangelo Hall. I think that more or less cancels him out.

-Last meeting Atl won on thanksgiving 20-7 last year.

With all three dlineman most likely out, considering how Vick is playing right now, I feel that this game is going to be 30 to 10 type range. I think Detroit is going to get pummelled in a fashion the likes Detroit fans won't like.

[Ken_AA]

I agree, however since its hard to make any argument in Detroits favor I'm left wondering about a trap line.

I guess you can argue that Detroit is at home after a bye.

I'm still on Atlanta for 2 Units.

Ken

[beetman]

I think this line may drop to -4 or -3.5 by Sunday.

[silentbob]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess you can argue that Detroit is at home after a bye.

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought the rule of thumb was to fade home favorites coming off a bye after a loss.

[playersare]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought the rule of thumb was to fade home favorites coming off a bye after a loss.

[/ QUOTE ]
detroit is not the favorite. line opened +6 and you can get -4.5 -105 already.

[silentbob]

I know Detroit's not the favorite. My last post was basically asking whether there is a broader rule of thumb for fading home teams coming off a bye. Because my understanding is that the rule is narrower than that.

[Assani Fisher]

[ QUOTE ]
After last weeks St. Louis game inspired me to become a better handicapper so here is my first effort.


[/ QUOTE ]

Some actual serious advice from Assani here for a change....

I've noticed a trend in most of your posts here, and I think that fixing it may help you become better. It seems to me that in nearly all of your posts you focus on all of the positives for one side and none of the negatives. NO SPREADS ARE AS BIG OF MIS-MATCHES AS YOU MAKE THEM OUT TO BE.

Now I will say that I think its an excellent thing that you come here and ask for other's opinions. That clearly helps you see the other side.

However, I think that I would be more inclined to trust your picks if you wrote a post that went something like this:

[ QUOTE ]
ATL is -5 this week at Det. Det has the following advantages regarding this spread: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. Atl has these advantages regarding the spread: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. I could see the game going like this ____________, in which case Det +5 is the better pick. Or I could see it going like this __________, in which case Atl -5 is the better pick. Overall however I think the advantages favoring Atlanta are much more prominent, so I like Atl -5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now obviously I'm being overly formulaistic(is that even a word?) here, but I think you get my point. With each bet, try to convince yourself of the other side before you decide. Have an arguemnt with yourself and try to think of every possible advantage for both sides. Because, as I said, it seems as if in nearly all of your posts you are only focusing on the advantages for one side.

With all of that said, yes I like ATL here [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[kdog]

Really have no opinion on the side but I'm on under 47 for one unit. Any other thoughts on this?

[MacGuyV]

I'm not crazy about either side but I would really like the Lions if they didn't have the injuries you mentioned. I just think they're an underrated team. By 'underrated' I don't mean 'good' - but minus the Packers game this year they've been closer to an average team than the horrible team they're perceived as. Of course Atlanta is in the "Bengals/Giants" group of teams that I pick wrong every week.

[BeatPurdue]

Stay away from this game. The Falcons apply to a negative 64-128-3 ATS road letdown situation this week. Detroit can certainly score enough points to cover as an underdog.