Cash games vs Fishy SNGs vs Tough SNGs

linuxrocks · #1 11-03-2006, 10:31 AM

Ok, this is not another I can't win on PS style post. Please bear with me and analyze the numbers a bit.

I used to play SNGs on Party with solid ROI numbers and then moved to FT for playing cash games. Had great run at the cash games and I love them. Of course, variance is always a bitch and with a few 5 buy-in swings at 200NL, I decided to play tourneys for a while. I still play cash but not with high volume.

Now, with Party being busto, I moved to PS. I started 10+ tabling the 16s with good success, but every time I try higher limits, it's been tough. True, there are fish, but there are also good number of regulars. I checked on Sharkscope for every good player I know of and very few are doing two digit ROIs. I have the bankroll and (probably) the skill to handle 60s, but I am depressed with the single digit ROIs.

Let's see some numbers. The multi-tabling is what I believe I am comfortable with. I am assuming one can complete 1.5 sessions every hour.

16s 15% ROI, WR: 10 * 16 * 15/100 = 24$/session = 36$/hr
27s 7% ROI WR: 8 * 27 * 7/100 = 15$/session = 22.5$/hr
60s 5% ROI WR: 4 * 60 * 5/100 = 12$/session = 18$/hr
200NL 6-max 5PTBB/100 WR: 4 * 10 * 80/100 = 32$/hr (usually you get 80 hands per hour)

Obviously, higher ROIs and more tables help, but I am unconvinced that the SNGs are as profitable as they used to be. On the other hand, cash games are a lot more fun and with good table selection can have higher PTBB/100 numbers.

Am I missing some thing ? Thoughts ? Win rates ?

Flame away !

Gelford · #2 11-03-2006, 10:50 AM

I never played Stars, but should your winrate be cut in half from the 16s to the 27s ??

What buyins where you playing at party and at what roi's ?? (And what samplesizes are we talking about here ?? )

linuxrocks · #3 11-03-2006, 10:59 AM

If we were to believe to SharkScope, yes, I haven't seen any one with (big) double digit ROI over a large sample for 60s. I DO think that the ROI drops considerably. I am talking about turbos here.

I used to play in 33$, 55$ tourneys on party with ~20% ROIs over 2000 SNGs. I had higher ROIs in 22$, 11$ SNGs and once even made a prop bet for maintaining 40% ROI.

I have a feeling that many people don't want to accept the doomsday conclusion that SNGs are not as profitable as before (I myself included). That's why I was putting some hard numbers to find out whether they really are more profitable than cash games.

Longy · #4 11-03-2006, 11:27 AM

I don't think the dropoff from 16's to 27's can realistic be a 50% drop in roi long term. No one would move up because 16's would be more profitable.

As for SNG's becoming harder i find that difficult to gauge as i only moved over from cash 3 months ago, looks like bad timing on my part reading the ever growing conclusion that sng's are becoming harder.

I have a solution, i think everyone who reads this forum should go and play cash. Then i can make some big money.

AmazingErvin · #5 11-03-2006, 11:34 AM

The 16-27 jump should not be that big of an ROI drop for sure. As for high ROI's at 60's...

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Eagles · #6 11-03-2006, 11:43 AM

Linux,
I don't know how much cash you play but 5ptbbs at 1/2 NL especially on stars right now means you need to be a very good player to achieve that.

kolotoure · #7 11-03-2006, 11:47 AM

The Stars 200NL game really isn't that tough it is just full of predictable nits who play 6max like FR

The Don · #8 11-03-2006, 12:20 PM

Obviously cash is more profitable than SNGs, is that the point you were trying to make?

SNGs, especially the Stars ones, are great for massive multitabling. There's no way I would play the 60s (5-6 regs per table normally [although a lot of the regs are terrible]) if I wasn't at least 12 tabling.

Remember, volume over skill in SNGs my friend.

snakekilla88 · #9 11-03-2006, 02:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Linux,
I don't know how much cash you play but 5ptbbs at 1/2 NL especially on stars right now means you need to be decent player to achieve that.

[/ QUOTE ]

linuxrocks · #10 11-03-2006, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Linux,
I don't know how much cash you play but 5ptbbs at 1/2 NL especially on stars right now means you need to be decent player to achieve that.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, 5PTBB is high for stars but at Full Tilt that's quite easy to achieve. In fact, I have much higher numbers over 10K hands. Table selection is obviously quite important. I never played on Stars but heard horror stories about it being too nitty.