Is this bad?

[Mossberg]

Okay so I've moved down cuz I hate 550bb downswings and was tired of getting beat up on a daily basis. I'm trying to loosen up, bluff a bit more often and become less predictable in general.. I've realized one of the biggest problems about being a tight-nit is that I get no action when I make big hands..

No sample on villain yet. Seems loose.

Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, 2 folds, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6.5SB, 3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4.25BB, 2 players)
Hero checks intending to raise the cbet...

[VickreyAuction]

No, not bad. You'll get him to fold overcards the times that he has overcards.

[Mossberg]

And that was what I was hoping to do.. Just not sure if it's correct against an unknown in this particular spot.

I guess I should also ask what you folks think of firing again on the river vs. giving up..

[Bullitos]

if he calls your turn raise you should just give up.

The semibluf looks ok, I don't do this very often, is it a winning play? Shouldn't you have at least some good reads? A read of 'seems loose' doesnt look like the right person to do this against.

I tend to be pretty straightforward against unknows until I have some prove I can make some sort of move on them. So I think I would just check/call turn c/f river UI.

[VickreyAuction]

I'd give up on the river. It's pretty tough for him to have a hand that will call the turn but fold the river, since there aren't any draws.

[Point Blank]

I like ... as long as I know villian will fold to the turn check raise with overs, or is not passive enough to just call with JJ+ (I don't want to be put in a bad spot on the river)

I think this is a good play against your regular playing group, as it would mix them up a little and will be willing to call you down more often with marginal holdings

I would like to know how often one should attempt this ...

[milesdyson]

"as long as I know villian will fold to the turn check raise with overs, or is not passive enough to just call with JJ+ (I don't want to be put in a bad spot on the river)"

first of all most players will just call down with JJ+ because your line kind of does look like a Tx hand. secondly, it's good for you that they just call because this way you can be relatively sure that you won't be forced to put in 3bb on the turn with a draw. the river isnt tough if he calls, because a turn call typically means he is going to showdown. i see QJ as the only hand (which often doesnt get raised utg) that calls and folds the river ui.

[Roland32]

I do not like the line. I am thinking leading out is worth a good half bet in the long run.

[Point Blank]

[ QUOTE ]
"as long as I know villian will fold to the turn check raise with overs, or is not passive enough to just call with JJ+ (I don't want to be put in a bad spot on the river)"

first of all most players will just call down with JJ+ because your line kind of does look like a Tx hand. secondly, it's good for you that they just call because this way you can be relatively sure that you won't be forced to put in 3bb on the turn with a draw. the river isnt tough if he calls, because a turn call typically means he is going to showdown. i see QJ as the only hand (which often doesnt get raised utg) that calls and folds the river ui.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
good point ... I guess I would call down with JJ+

guess I should have been thinking 'aren't aggressive enough to 3bet me without the Ten'

thanks for the slap Miles[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Leader]

Well let's see. Let's think about how much he needs fold for this to be good. For simplicity let's limit this to three cases.You raise and he calls down and you win. You raise and he calls the turn, you miss and c/f the river. You raise and he folds. Taken together these equal the EV of raising. For a raise to be correct, it has to be both greater the 0 (i.e. folding) and greater the the EV of calling.

The EV of calling, assuming 1.40BB* in implied odds, is 8/46(6.65) - 38/46(1)=+.3304 BB

So the EV of raising must be greater then .3304 BB

Now we get to the EV of raising.

First let's examine the case when you raise and he calls down and you win. In this case, you win 7.25 BB. This will happen 8/46 times when you raise and he calls down.

Next let's examine the case when you raise, he calls the turn, you c/f the river when you miss. In this case, you lose 2BB. This will happen 38/46 times you raise and he calls.

If he never folds, your EV for the raises is (38/46)(-2)+(8/46)(7.25) = -.3913

This is -.3913-.3304 or -.7217 bb then worse then calling.

Therefore, we need to make up this amount by him folding.

So (The EV of him folding)*(the probability of a fold) must me greater then .7217 BB. The EV of him folding is 5.25 bb. Therefore the probability of a fold must be .7217/5.25 or 0.1374, 13.74% or greater.

When we consider more complicated scenario, there are generally unfavorable. He will general fold the river so amount of the time when you hit. Sometimes he will have a T in this case, you will get to 3 bet. Sometimes he will have TT or 88. In this case, you are in some real trouble. Though that situation is rare it's hugely -EV when it happens.

Given these facts it's clear the 13.74% is too low. How much more does he needs to fold? That's is going to be pretty hard to calculate because it has to do with his range what exactly he does with it.

I don't have time to do out this calculation. My instinct is that whether a c/r is good has to do with whether he'll fold KQ/KJ/AJ/A9 type hands. This seems somewhat unlikely.

Another thing to consider is whether the line call-c/r-c/f is better then the lines c/r-bet-c/f or c/c-c/r-bet.

*This is my guestament. You could uses your own.

**My math may suck. So check it yourself and make sure you understand it. I'm happy to clarify any questions people have.