When villian leads into you after a capped flop ($2/$4)

[stickdude]

Just sat down, but villian's datamined stats were 29.91/26.17/3.68

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $187
Hero: $181
CO: $14
Button: $113
SB: $69
BB: $55

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero caps</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (14SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero caps</font>, BB calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (11BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, Hero ?????

With that AF, I'm guessing he'd play TT+ this way, so there's a 50% chance I'm behind a set, and 50% chance he has a smaller overpair, and a small chance he's got a big draw (K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] type of draw). If he was capping with 89 on the flop, he just got there on the turn.

Is this a standard call-down, or does anyone raise? Obviously I'm not folding here with the pot as large as it is.

[biendover]

Raise it up. You're likely ahead. With his AF, he could be leading into you with a huge assortment of hands. AK, AQ, AJ, smaller pp, etc. I'm capping the flop and calling down if he still leads out on the turn.

[nickg1532]

i'd just call down here

[Atlanta Andrew]

[ QUOTE ]
With that AF, I'm guessing he'd play TT+ this way, so there's a 50% chance I'm behind a set, and 50% chance he has a smaller overpair,

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. With a T and and J already out on the flop, villain is twice as likely to hold QQ/KK.

I think you can pop a raise one more time on the turn and then call down from there if he 3-bets.

-Andrew

[stickdude]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm capping the flop and calling down if he still leads out on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, I did cap the flop and he still lead out on the turn - thus my question. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[stickdude]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With that AF, I'm guessing he'd play TT+ this way, so there's a 50% chance I'm behind a set, and 50% chance he has a smaller overpair,

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. With a T and and J already out on the flop, villain is twice as likely to hold QQ/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very good point. Now why can't I remember things like that in the heat of battle?

[poisonxfree]

On a less drawy board I will call and raise turn sometimes, or raise/call and raise turn. I like this on this board though, cap flop, call down if he leads. If he c/r's turn though I punch something and call down still because I can't fold overpairs.

[biendover]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm capping the flop and calling down if he still leads out on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, I did cap the flop and he still lead out on the turn - thus my question. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry man... haha...read ur post super fast. thought u were asking about the flop. I usually will call down turn unless I know villain well enough to allow a raise on the turn.

[duckman]

I am raising this turn lots of hands are played this way by an aggro type like him.

[Atlanta Andrew]

All you guys in the calldown camp...why? Did you see this guy's aggression factor? Check out the following model that uses these fairly standard assumptions:

1. Villain's range is exactly TT-AA
2. Villain will always 3-bet a set.
3. Villain will always calldown without a set.
4. Neither hero nor villain improves on river.

Villain Combos Calldown EV Raise EV
TT 3 -0.32 -0.63
JJ 3 -0.32 -0.63
QQ 6 0.63 0.95
KK 6 0.63 0.95
AA 1 0.00 0.00

Total 19 0.63 0.63

So there is no EV difference between calling or raising using these assumptions. However, I think villain's actual range is slightly large given his aggression factor. We can specifically add:

KQ
AJ
KJ (stretching, but possible)
Aggro bluff mania

I guess JT or a smaller set might turn up rarely too, but I think the hands listed above are more likely in the context of pre-flop/flop action.

So as we begin to add any hands beyond TT-AA in villain's range, raising the turn becomes more profitable than calling down.

-Andrew