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#1
10-31-2006, 07:22 PM
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EV of Pleasers
There has been some discussion here of that teasers across key numbers are +EV if offered at even money.
What about Pleasers? Can they be done in a +EV way? It seems like with the 6:1 odds you get you should be able to find two games in college football each week where you feel you have close to a 6 point edge (and only need to be right one out of five times for it to be profitable). Ken 
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#3
10-31-2006, 07:54 PM
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Re: EV of Pleasers
Let me get this straight -- in a pleaser you move the line 6 points against each of your selected 2 picks, and if you win both (at the new, worse lines), the pleaser pays 6 to 1??
If that's the case, and my math is correct (a big "if") you're going to need to hit 1/7 of your pleasers to break even, which will mean hitting 37.8% of your "pleased" games to break even. [Math: 1/7 ~ 14.28%; 37.8% * 2 ~ 14.28%] What other combinations are available (i.e., number of points/number of teams/odds) that might offer a lower break even mark?
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#4
11-01-2006, 12:54 AM
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Re: EV of Pleasers
[ QUOTE ]
Let me get this straight -- in a pleaser you move the line 6 points against each of your selected 2 picks, and if you win both (at the new, worse lines), the pleaser pays 6 to 1?? If that's the case, and my math is correct (a big "if") you're going to need to hit 1/7 of your pleasers to break even, which will mean hitting 37.8% of your "pleased" games to break even. [Math: 1/7 ~ 14.28%; 37.8% * 2 ~ 14.28%] What other combinations are available (i.e., number of points/number of teams/odds) that might offer a lower break even mark? [/ QUOTE ] Didn't check your math, but yes you have the idea correct. 3team pleaser pays 17:1 4team is 45:1 5 is 120:1 My plan for this wekeend is Hawaii -34 (Myturn says the line is good for a bet to that number) and Indiana -.5 The site I am betting at is down right now though (they run a tuesdays -105 juice and I guess they are changing the lines back to -110 now. Ken
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#5
11-01-2006, 01:37 AM
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Re: EV of Pleasers
Personally, I think they can be profitable in college football on selective games. The idea would be to work in the opposite regard to teasers, so you try to avoid key numbers... and the NFL. Pleasing up to -.5 is pretty bad. Pinnacle lists a +195 ML for that Indiana game. So if you take a two team ML parlay of +195 you would make $77 instead of $60 for pleasing them both to -.5 You are crossing some important numbers there. Now the huge Hawaii favorite with a crapload of points is significantly better. It would probably be the worst game imaginable to have in a teaser, so that's what would make it closer to a good bet in a pleaser where you have to lay the points. Higher the spread, higher the total, more volatile the teams playing, the better they will be for a pleaser. Low spreads, totals, and well established teams (think SEC powerhouse matchup or NFL) are bad. If ties lose, you better focuse on good hooks also or find a ties-no action book. I'm not sure what the market is for two team 6-1 pleasers though.
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#7
11-01-2006, 07:35 PM
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Re: EV of Pleasers
[ QUOTE ]
Also, do we know if pleasers can be applied to totals (NCAA football)? That might be useful too (i.e., extremely high totals). [/ QUOTE ] No, just sides. ALso, I am reconsidering That Indiana play, that does seem like a bad on,e maybe ohio st on the other side of hawaii Ken
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